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Monsoon update
The monsoon trough is wagging around like the tail of a dog. As usual, many guesses about what the monsoon might do in a week or two. But we are still not quite settled on the next 3 to 4 days. The Gulf is the hardest place to forecast and with a low approaching, we have the models split as to how far East the low will move let alone what might occur in the Coral Sea. We also noted that the SOI had peaked today and could go higher, meaning that low pressure is dominating near Darwin more than Tahiti.
National
Tropical lows along a monsoon trough maintain heavy rain & storms across the tropics. Other deep troughs & onshore winds continue to drive showers & storms over WA, SA, Vic, NSW & eastern Qld while maintaining heat across the interior & west.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A monsoon trough is present in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Cape York Peninsula, and the western Coral Sea, lasting for a few days. On Monday, a weak tropical low will form on this trough in the western Coral Sea and move eastward in the following days. A high pressure ridge is found in central and southern Queensland, supported by a high pressure system moving eastward across the Southern Ocean. This high pressure system will reach the Tasman Sea on Monday and gradually move eastward. On Wednesday, a trough will enter southwestern Queensland and move eastward across southern Queensland on Thursday and Friday, gradually weakening by the weekend. Later in the week, a tropical low in the Northern Territory may move toward central Australia, potentially reaching northwestern Queensland before returning to central Australia.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Monday: Possible showers, thunderstorms, and rain in the far north, northwest, and coastal areas north of Ayr. Potential for severe thunderstorms in the far north and northwest, with heavy rainfall between Tully and Ayr. Chance of showers and a thunderstorm elsewhere, clear in southeast and central interior. Winds light to moderate, northeast to southeasterly, fresh at times on the southeast coast. Wind direction changing to northwest to northeasterly over northern Cape York Peninsula.
Tuesday: Scattered to widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms and periods of rain in the far north and northwest. Possible severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in the same areas. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Below average maximum temperatures north of Richmond and in the southeast, near average elsewhere.
Wednesday: Scattered rainfall and thunderstorms in the north and northwest, with possible severe storms. Some showers and storms in other areas. Temperatures below average in the northwest, above in the south, and near average elsewhere.
Thursday: Scattered showers in the north and northwest, isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Cooler temperatures in the northwest, near average everywhere else.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 25 to 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: showers possible with heavy falls in south, Other: cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: chance of showers, Other: cloudy, chance of severe thunderstorm.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 30 to 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h turning easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers near the coast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm in the south.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: unspecified, Rainfall: cloudy with very high chance of showers and areas of rain in the west, Chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: around 30 degrees, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of showers with heavy falls possible, Other: cloudy, chance of thunderstorm possibly severe.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 38, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with very high chance of showers in the north and medium chance elsewhere.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: low 20s, wind speed: easterly 15 to 25 km/h, wind direction: easterly, rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers and a chance of thunderstorm in the east.
Central West:
The weather will be mostly sunny with a slight chance of a shower, the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening, with winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 35 to 40.
North West:
Max temperature: 41 | Min temperature: low to mid 20s | Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h | Wind direction: east to northeasterly | Rainfall: Partly cloudy. Medium chance of showers north of Mt Isa, slight chance elsewhere | Other: Chance of a thunderstorm
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: high 20s, Wind speed: easterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the east, Otherwise near zero chance of rain, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms from late morning.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature in the mid to high 30s, min temperature 21 to 26, wind speed 15 to 25 km/h from east to northeasterly, chance of showers, chance of thunderstorm, partly cloudy.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h easterly, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers and thunderstorm.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 33, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: SE 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: E-SE, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Far North West Coast.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall & Damaging Winds) for parts of Pilbara, Gascoyne, Goldfields & Central Wheat Belt districts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of North East and Northern Country.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of South West Slopes, Riverina and Snowy Mountains.
Strong Wind Warning Spencer Gulf, Invest St & Upper West, Lower West, Central, South Central, Upper SE & L SE coasts. Cancelled Far W.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Blackwood.
Strong Wind Warning for Byron and Illawarra coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Sunshine Coast Waters, Moreton Bay, Gold Coast Waters & Fraser Island Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast East, Pilbara Coast West & North Kimberley, Albany & Esperance coasts. Cancelled Leeuwin Coast.
Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds And Heavy Rainfall) for Daly, Tiwi and parts of Arnhem and Gregory districts.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Herbert and Lower Burdekin.
Strong Wind Warning for Van Diemen Gulf, Darwin Harbour & Beagle Bonaparte, North Tiwi and Arafura coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Gippsland Lakes & West, Central, Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts.
Flood Watch For The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The Gulf Of Carpentaria.
Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River.
Major Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning For The Goulburn River.
Flood Watch For The North Western Nt.
Minor Flood Warning For The Latrobe River.
Final Flood Warning For The Thomson River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Loddon River.
Final Flood Warning For The Seven Creeks.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Swan Inland South.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bogan River.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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