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Monsoon Update
It's probably too late now to put your guess in for Megan but Neville is the next and you might just scrape that in maybe. Tropical Low 08U is bringing strong winds and rain to Cocos and Christmas Islands, with a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Monday onward. While it may head towards the Pilbara coast later, no direct threat is expected in the next 7 days. The monsoon near the Kimberley and western Top End coast is getting stronger. There's a chance a tropical low, called 09U, might form within the monsoon early in the week, moving southeast towards the Kimberley or western Top End coast. However, it's unlikely to become a tropical cyclone from Monday to Thursday.
Looking ahead 3 and a bit days we can see the low pressure reaching from the Peninsula to New Caledonia across the Coral Sea, which is yet to show it's hand, although the Satellite is showing cloud building at the top of the Peninsula.
National
Expect more rain and storms in the Top End and northeast WA as the monsoon strengthens. The rain will spread to southern WA with humid, unstable winds. Onshore winds will bring showers to East QLD and northeast NSW, while hot northerly winds are forecasted over SA, Vic, and western NSW.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
High over Tasman Sea weakens. Trough may become monsoon system. Potential for tropical lows next week. Trough expected in Queensland next weekend.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Sunday: Some showers and storms in the north and west areas. Heavy rain possible in the North Tropical Coast. Showers possible in eastern districts south of Mackay. Clear elsewhere. Winds northeast to southeasterly.
Monday: Monday: Spotty rain and storms in northern regions, widespread showers in North Tropical Coast and North Cape York Peninsula. Some showers in south-eastern districts with a chance of a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Higher temperatures in southwest, average in other areas.
Tuesday: Patchy showers and thunderstorms in the north, widespread showers in far north Cape York. Showers in the east and chance of a thunderstorm in Central Coast. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Temps above average in southwest, near average elsewhere.
Wednesday: Mainly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of northern Queensland, with possible morning fog in the southeast. Temperature above average in southwest and southern interior, near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 31°C, Min temperature: 20°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h ESE, Wind direction: ESE, Rainfall: Showers likely, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm in the north.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature around 30, min temperature in the low 20s, wind speed 15 to 25 km/h southeasterly, partly cloudy with medium chance of showers.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Partly cloudy with a max temperature of 32°C, min temperature in the low 20s, southeasterly winds of 25-35 km/h, high chance of showers along the coast, medium chance elsewhere, and a chance of a thunderstorm in the south.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: east, Rainfall: showers likely, Weather: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: easterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light, Wind direction: east, Rainfall: High chance of showers near the south coast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 35°C, Min temperature: 20°C, Wind: Easterly 25-40 km/h, Rainfall: Slight chance of shower southeast, Winds easterly 25 to 40 km/h with a mix of cloud cover and chance of thunderstorms.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 18-22°C, Wind: Southeasterly 25-40 km/h decreasing to 20-30 km/h, Rainfall: High chance of showers near coast, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature in the low to mid 30s, min temperature between 17 and 21, wind speed at 25-35 km/h from east to southeasterly with partly cloudy skies and slight chance of shower in the east and near zero rain elsewhere, chance of a thunderstorm in the east by late morning.
Central West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: easterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h; Wind direction: east; Rainfall: none; Conditions: Mostly sunny.
North West:
Max temperature in the mid to high 30s, min temperature in the mid 20s, wind speed easterly 25-35 km/h becoming light late evening, wind direction easterly, rainfall near zero chance with a medium chance of showers west of Mt Isa, partly cloudy with thunderstorm chance in the morning and afternoon.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h easterly, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Maximum temperature in the low to mid 30s, minimum temperature between 17 and 23, easterly winds at 25 to 35 km/h, sunny conditions with overnight temperatures falling, and no mention of rainfall.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Maximum temperature: 35°C, Minimum temperature: 16°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h easterly, Wind direction: East, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers over Granite Belt, other areas near zero, Weather: Partly cloudy.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: 17-21, Wind speed: 25-40 km/h decreasing to 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers along coastal fringe, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy with thunderstorm chance in morning and afternoon.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature in the mid to high 20s, min temperature between 18 and 22, southeasterly winds 25 to 40 km/h decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h, partly cloudy with medium chance of showers mostly in late morning and afternoon, and overnight temperatures falling.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall in Eucla and parts of Goldfields and South Interior districts in WA.
Strong Wind Warning for Perth Local Waters & Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth & Bunbury Geographe coasts in WA (Eucla Coast cancelled).
Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone in WA.
Gale Warning for western and southern areas, and Storm Force Wind Warning for western, southeastern, and southern areas in NSW/ACT.
Minor Flood Warning for the Herbert River and Strong Wind Warning for Hervey Bay, Sunshine Coast Waters, Gold Coast Waters & Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Capricornia, and K'gari coasts in QLD.
Minor Flood Warning for the Flinders River in QLD.
Strong Wind Warning for East Gippsland Coast, and Heatwave Warning for Victoria in VIC.
Fire Weather Warning for West Coast, E Eyre, L Eyre, Mid North, Mt Lofty R, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Murraylands, Upper SE & L SE in SA.
Heatwave Warning for Victoria in VIC.
Flood Watch for the East Kimberly, Salt Lake And Nullarbor District Rivers, Sandy Desert And Parts Of The Pilbara Coast Rivers in WA.
Strong Wind Warning for Byron Coast in NSW/ACT.
Strong Wind Warning for Upper East, Lower East, South East, South West, and Central West coasts (Far North West Coast cancelled) in TAS.
Minor Flood Warning for the Daintree River in QLD.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Qld) in QLD.
Initial Flood Warning for the Ord River in WA.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Daly River in NT.
Flood Watch for the Victoria River Below Kalkarindji, The Katherine, Daly, Fitzmaurice, Moyle, Waterhouse And East Kimberley Rivers in NT.
Minor Flood Warning For The Mulgrave River And Flood Warning For The Russell River in QLD.
Minor Flood Warning For The Katherine River in NT.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Tully River And Minor Flood Warning For The Murray River in QLD.
Minor Flood Warning For The Waterhouse River And Flood Warning For The Roper River in NT.
Fire Weather Warning for South West and Central in VIC.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Diamantina River in QLD.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw) in NSW/ACT.
Final Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw) in NSW/ACT.
Moderate Flood Warning For Eyre Creek And Minor Flood Warning For The Georgina River in QLD.
Flood Warning For The Inland Rivers Sa in SA.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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