Current position circled in pink on the map, corresponds with the position of the monsoon pulse. The monsoon pulse is where the most cloud and storm activity sits along the equator.
The MJO chart plots where this cloud sits around a circle which represents the equator. In general the plot moves anti clockwise which is plotting its movement from West to East around the equator. When the plot moves away from the circle it is where the monsoon becomes more active. The 8 triangles represent a region, the ones around Australia I have marked W, N and E. I marked the current position with an aqua circle.
By my calculations we are about 2 to 3 weeks from the monsoon pulse reaching the West, which is the Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. We have seen the West very quiet and so to the North which is the Arafura Sea and Gulf. The East has been active but only close to the equator.
Sea Surface Temperatures each week
Checking the animation shows the region if most development, NE of the Solomon Islands is the warmest but very quickly cools to the South. This may indicate a slow move of warm water to the Southern Hemisphere, and thus a longer later season.
To follow along in more detail, click the link below to view the long-range forecast
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