🌪️ Cyclone Season: Why Later Can Mean Stronger

Cyclone season in our region runs from November to April, but most activity — especially the stronger systems — tends to occur mid- to late season rather than at the start.

That’s because the monsoon trough and large-scale winds become better established as we move into late summer and early autumn, which helps storms form and sustain themselves.

Typically, there are two main “pulse” periods of cyclone activity during a wet season — an early pulse as conditions first become favourable, and a later pulse when the peak seasonal warmth and moisture combine with supportive atmospheric patterns. Some seasons see most activity clustered in that second pulse, and storms that form then can pack more intensity due to warmer seas and a more developed monsoon environment.

Right now, we’ve only seen one real pulse, and the environment across much of QLD has been trending toward more patchy, storm-driven rain rather than broad monsoon rain. Signals from long-range patterns like the Madden–Julian Oscillation suggest it may be some time before the next big convergence phase sets up, which is why a later late-season window (think late Feb into March) is often when QLD should watch more closely.

Even though overall cyclone numbers vary season to season, climatology shows that most systems form from December through March, with a peak later in the season, and there are plenty of historical examples of very intense storms forming in that later timeframe.

🌐 Australian tropical cyclone season info: bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/

🌐 General cyclone facts & impacts: csiro.au/en/research/disasters/faqs-on-tropical-cyclones

🌐 Madden–Julian Oscillation and cyclone links: bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/climate-knowledge-centre/climate-factors/madden-julian-oscillation