February Pinned Post

So I was thinking I would use ChatGPT to write this month’s pinned post. But then realised there is no way it could dribble like me. So you have to put up with me instead. For those thatbdont know, ChatGPT can write whatever you want. I got it to write a 2000 word report, a poem and a Python script. So the answer is no I am not a robot.

Ok so onto the month of February 2023, already. And we are in a cool, wet and humid wet season. That does not look kike changing. And as far as wet seasons like this go, Feb and March are often more intense.

Month by month cyclone intensity trend for Western waters.

We start with the MJO as usual. It is stalled briefly just West of Western region of Australian concern.

Western region average 7 cyclones, currently 3 for West and North West regions.

So in about a week, maybe 2 weeks we might see multiple tropical lows and possibly one or two cyclones in the West and North West region or crossing over both. In 2 to 3 weeks from now, ie 2nd and 3rd week of Feb we may see more tropical lows from North West to Northern region ie the gulf. We may see one cyclone but depends if the monsoon stalls in the North as it did last time. Then maybe 2. Weeks 3 and 4 of Feb would see the monsoon progress into the MJO region 6 outlined in red below ie the Eastern region.

This is where we see tropical lows or cyclones cross.the peninsula into the Coral Sea, and this season they have travelled out towards New Caledonia and then South to NZ. So here we may see one or two pop into or pop up in the Coral Sea.

The SOI is dropping so storms and unstable weather should ease over the next week, so we just have the monsoon and not both. The SOI is where we get large areas of low pressure which leads to the stormy weather we have seen recently.

So a summary

This week or week 1 into week 2 some stabilisation, although still settling down so still some storms. Trade winds return end of week so Far Northern and Whitsundays to see onshore showers unless a ridge forms.

Stable High with still unstable low in gulf.

Monsoon to start in the West to North West week 2 to 3. Tropical lows to cyclones bringing more rainfall across central Australia and into QLD by week 3.

Tropical lows and central Australia rain.

Week 3 to 4 of Feb a new High to bring semi stability while the monsoon either takes a other shot at the West and North West or moves to the Gulf.

Week 4 into week 1 of March the monsoon picks up in the Gulf to Coral Sea region and tropical lows to cyclones form. The monsoon trough to drop week 3 to 4 as well, humidity to peak and heavy rainfall where the trough crosses the coast, and convergence further South near Yeppoon with heavy rain week 4 more likely.

Hope that helps!