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    • May 1
    • 4 min read

May Monthly Forecast Post 2024

Updated: May 2

This monthly forecast is brought to you by Gecko Interiors.


Wally's Weather Australia
Gecko Interiors

Welcome to Gecko Interiors, a fun and colourful gift and homewares store based in tropical North Queensland, Australia. Whether you're a local shopping from home, or dropped in to my store while on a recent holiday to Townsville (with no room left to take everything back in your suitcase! ), let us take care of delivering to you.




Welcome to May!


Week 1

National

1st to 3rd: A High moving below SA. Heavy Rain West NSW due to inland trough, Rain along the SE QLD coast. Warmest NW WA, Northern NT and Northern QLD. Coolest alpine region.

4th to 5th:  A Low moving below WA. Rain moving up from the SE QLD coast to the Central coast. Cooling throughout NSW and moving into QLD.

6th to 7th: Low merges with a new High West of WA. More heavy rain to the West of NSW, showers moving up from Central QLD coast to the FNQ coast. Cooling moving right up the dividing ranges and coast of QLD.


Gallery - wind direction and speed - precipitation - maximum temperature

Meteologix 7 day GFS forecast


Week 2

National

8th - 10th: A High over the Tasman clearing East. Rain over NSW/SA/Vic border, heavy rain to the North of NT, rain along the QLD coast mainly SEQ. Hot conditions NW WA, slightly less warm North of NT and QLD.

11th to 12th: The high clearing further East with a low starting to shift below WA. Heavy rain dropping a little South over the top of NT, rain moving from SA border into Central NSW and Vic and some into SEQ. Tassie also seeing heavy rain. Cooling central Australia.

13th to 14th: A low moving through South of SA and then over Tasmania. Rain contracting to the SEQ and along the QLD coastline as showers. Cooling Eastern states. Cooler air moving over Southern WA and South West SA.


Gallery - wind direction and speed - precipitation - maximum temperature

Meteologix 7 day GFS forecast


Week 3

National

15th to 17th: High pressure system sitting over SA, inland trough QLD. Rain mainly heavier than normal along NSW coastline, light inland NSW. Some above normal rain for FNQ, and possibly off Perth. Cooling Souther WA. Staying cooler SA, Vic, Tas and NSW.

18th to 19th: High pressure system moving slowly into NSW/Vic, inland trough QLD. Rain mainly heavier than normal along NSW coastline, light inland NSW. Some above normal rain for FNQ, and possibly off Perth. Cooling Souther WA. Staying cooler SA, Vic, Tas and NSW.

20th to 21st: High pressure system still slowly moving East, inland trough QLD. Rain mainly heavier than normal along NSW coastline, light inland NSW. Some above normal rain for FNQ. Cooling Souther WA. Staying cooler SA, Vic, Tas and NSW.


Gallery - pressure - precipitation anomaly - maximum temperature

Meteologix ECMWF 46 Day



Week 4

National

Pressure: High weakening over the Eastern states.

Rainfall: Rain heavy over NSW coastline, lighter inland. Rain more than average along exposed coast of QLD tropics.

Temperature: Cooling later in the week.


Gallery - pressure - precipitation anomaly - maximum temperature

Meteologix ECMWF 46 Day





Checking in with the BOM:


Chance of above average - Rainfall | Temperature Min | Temperature Max



Rainfall expected to be average to the North East and North of the Country, the FNQ to see higher than average rain. Temps warmer than average for most of the country during the day and lower at night indicating clearer skies due to less rain.


Comparison March decile to Forecast Chance above ave March - Rainfall | Temp Min - Temp Max

Much better forecast this month for rainfall, same for Maximum temps but less so for the minimum temps, likely due to the lack of cloud inland keeping things cooler.




Rainfall totals:

Coming soon


Checking in with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The SOI has dropped again, and this aligns with a blog I wrote about a weak El Nino dropping into what might look like a La Nina but then dipping back into El Nino. However the length and strength of this El Nino whilst is has officially ended, may return but die off quickly again.




Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The MJO is a significant pattern of tropical weather changes that occur over the course of weeks to months. Think of it as a sort of travelling wave of clouds and rainfall that moves from east to west near the equator. This pattern tends to repeat approximately every 30 to 60 days.


The MJO has shifted back to the center indicating it has weakened. In spite of the hype in recent days of more tropical activity and increased solar activity.



Checking in with the Sea Surface Temperatures:

Waters continue to cool as we move towards winter. Waters are warmer than normal around the coastline apart from North West of the country, the El Ninp conditions are starting to show along the Nino3.4 region between Australia and South America



Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.


References

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