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Special report
Monsoon:
Severe Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper), continues to move very slowly and models have shifted the crossing South twice today. So I wouldn't be surprised if the crossing location shifted again south, putting Cardwell into the category 2 winds region. I have shown the rain forecast for tomorrow morning with the spindles primary and outer shown. I will use these to help pinpoint where rain should fall over the next few days. The outer spindle is showing that it could provide one wave of reasonable rain in the afternoon to Townsville and Mackay. BOM A and E differ in that BOM A is more North than BOM E. BOM E crossing as a Cat 1 and BOM A as a low.
Storms:
Troughs will induce showers and storms in northern WA, the NT, QLD, western and southern NSW, northern VIC, and SA, maintaining heat over the eastern interior. Tropical Cyclone Jasper is expected to approach the north QLD coast, bringing showers.
Warning
Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall in Riverina, S Tablelands, CW Slopes/Plains, SW Slopes, L Western & C Tablelands.
Strong Wind Warning for Leeuwin Coast, with cancellations for Pilbara Coast East & West Kimberley, Gascoyne, and Geraldton coasts.
Gale Warning for Great Barrier Reef Offshore Waters and Strong Wind Warning for Townsville, Mackay, and Capricornia coasts.
Fire Weather Warnings for various regions, including Burrup, Gascoyne Coast, Central Interior, Midwest Coast, Midwest Inland, Swan Inland North.
Initial Flood Watch for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula, and Gulf Country.
Tropical Cyclone Watch for Cape Melville to Townsville, including Cairns and Cooktown.
Severe Weather Warnings for damaging winds in parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Central Coast, and Whitsundays, and heavy rain in E Eyre, Yorke Peninsula, L Eyre, Flinders, Mid North, North West Pastoral & NE Pastoral districts.
Sheep Graziers Warnings for NW Pastoral, E Eyre, L Eyre, Yorke Pen, Mt Lofty R, KI & West Coast, with a cancellation for Mid North.
Downy Mildew Advice for Mid North, Mt Lofty R, and Murraylands, with cancellations for Riverland, Upper South East & Lower South East.
Strong Wind Warning for West Coast, Fire Weather Warnings for Murraylands and Mallee.
Gale Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent, Investigator Strait, Adelaide Metropolitan Waters & Lower West, Central & South Central coasts.
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds in Mount Lofty Ranges and parts of Adelaide Metropolitan and Mid North districts.
Flood Watch For The Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Flinders, West Coast, And North West Pastoral Districts.
Final Flood Warning For The Thomson River.
Minor Flood Warnings for the Paroo River (Qld), Barcoo River, and Paroo River (Nsw).
ACCESS Rain 3pm Mon | BOM A Cyclone Track | BOM E Cyclone Track
National
Tropical Cyclone Jasper heads towards north Queensland, then Gulf of Carpentaria. Ridge persists due to highs in Tasman Sea & southern ocean. Southwest sees lingering trough. It expands into low pressure over central & southern Queensland. Trough systems enhance rainfall in southern Queensland & move across New South Wales.
State
Tropical Cyclone Jasper moves west towards north Queensland coast by Wednesday and may reach the Gulf of Carpentaria by Friday. A ridge over the state is maintained by a weak high in the Tasman Sea and a high moving east across the southern ocean. A trough in the far southwest will gradually expand into a low pressure area over central and southern Queensland from Wednesday. Multiple trough systems may enhance rainfall over southern Queensland by moving across New South Wales from Friday.
4-day
Monday: Isolated showers on the east coast north of Bundaberg. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northwest and western Cape York Peninsula. Mostly clear elsewhere. Northeast to southeasterly winds in eastern and central districts, fresh along the coast. Winds turning northwest to northeasterly elsewhere. Fresh and gusty south to southwesterly winds in the far southwest with possible raised dust. Severe heatwave conditions in the far north and northwest.
Tuesday: Rain in eastern districts, scattered showers elsewhere. Thunderstorms in northwest and coastal areas. Partly cloudy in the southeast. Increasing winds and seas on east coast. Severe heatwave in far north and northwest. Above average temperatures in northwest and far northeast.
Wednesday: Expect showers, rain, and possible thunderstorms in the east. Showers elsewhere except for the southeast. Thunderstorms in the north, west, and south. Damaging winds and coastal storm surge are possible in the east. Partly cloudy in the southeast. Severe heatwave in the northwest. Above average temperatures in the west and south, below average in the northeast, and near average elsewhere.
Thursday: Widespread showers, rain, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls in east. Scattered showers elsewhere. Isolated thunderstorms in north, west, south. Possible damaging winds and coastal storm surge near Cape Melville to Townsville. Partly cloudy in southeast. Severe heatwave in northwest, southeast. Higher temperatures in northwest, southeast, lower in Cape York, average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: 18, Wind speed: 45, Wind direction: Southerly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 35, min temperature: 19, wind speed: south to southeasterly 20-30 km/h, wind direction: east to southeasterly, rainfall: medium chance of showers, partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm near the coast and damaging winds possible along the coastal fringe.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s; Min temperature: low 20s; Wind speed: 35 to 55 km/h (southeasterly); Wind direction: southeasterly; Rainfall: Cloudy with high chance of rain; Other: Chance of thunderstorm in north, damaging winds possible along coastal fringe.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to southwesterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers and chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to southwesterly to north to northwesterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of raised dust in the west in the early morning, chance of a thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 34 to 40, Min temperature: 20 to 25, Wind speed: 15 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, mostly sunny.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 18-23°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h from east to southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, Cloudy.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 17-21, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h, Wind direction: E-SE, Rainfall: Partly cloudy, medium chance of showers in the north, near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Central West:
The weather will be mostly sunny, with a chance of raised dust in the west of Longreach in the early morning, and winds east to northeasterly at 25-35 km/h. Overnight temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s, with daytime temperatures reaching 33-40.
North West:
Max temperature reaching around 40 with northeast to southeasterly winds 15-25 km/h, chance of raised dust in the early morning.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40°C, Min temperature: 16°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h, Wind direction: south to southwesterly, Rainfall: Sunny morning with chance of raised dust, Chance of thunderstorm near South Australian border in afternoon/evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The max temperature is in the mid to high 30s, with a minimum temperature of 18-26, winds northeasterly 25-35 km/h, possible rainfall, and a sunny forecast.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: 16, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h from east to northeasterly, Rainfall: None, Weather: Mostly sunny
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 17, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h easterly, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower, Partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
The maximum temperature is around 30 with overnight temperatures falling to between 18 and 22, wind speed is easterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the late evening, there is a slight chance of a shower in the north and near zero chance elsewhere, and it will be partly cloudy.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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