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Special report
Monsoon:
Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper) is about 200 nautical miles east of Cairns, Australia. In the last six hours, it moved to the west-northwest at a speed of 7 knots. The lowest central pressure, 991 hPa. The tallest waves, measured at the same time, are 24 feet high. Expected between Cairns and Port Douglas depending on the model.
Storms:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper is approaching the north QLD coast, bringing increasing wind, rain, and storms. Troughs will cause showers and storms in the northern tropics, western QLD, NSW, VIC, and SA. Troughs will maintain heat to their north and east.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds & Heavy Rainfall) for Murraylands, Upper South East & Riverland & Lower South East districts.
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Cooktown to Townsville (not including Townsville). Watch extends to Cape Melville, Cooktown, Palmerville & Chillagoe.
Strong Wind Warning for Eucla Coast.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, and Blackwood.
Gale Warning for Great Barrier Reef Offshore Waters & Cairns, Townsville, and Mackay coasts. Strong Wind Warning for Capricornia Coast.
Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays.
Strong Wind Warning for West Coast.
Gale Warning For Southeastern And Southern Areas.
Strong Wind Warning Upper West, South Central, Upper South East & Lower South East coasts. Cancelled Invest St & Far West, Lower West & Central coasts.
Hazardous Surf Warning for Tuesday for Illawarra, Batemans and Eden coasts.
Downy Mildew Advice for Mid North and Mount Lofty Ranges.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Flood Watch For The North Tropical Coast, Parts Of The Cape York Peninsula And Gulf Country.
Final Flood Watch For The Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Flinders, West Coast, And North West Pastoral Districts.
Final Flood Warning For The Barcoo River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw)..
ECMWF Wind | GFS Wind | ACCESS Wind
National
Cyclone Jasper moves west to cross north Queensland Wednesday, then reaches Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday. High in Tasman Sea maintains ridge over southern and central Queensland, drifting east from Wednesday. Trough lingers in far southwest, expanding into low pressure over central/southern Queensland. Succession of troughs enhance rainfall in New South Wales and southern Queensland on Friday and next weekend.
State
Tropical Cyclone Jasper heads west, expected to reach north Queensland on Wednesday. Remnants move into Gulf of Carpentaria by Friday. High in Tasman Sea persists, drifting east from Wednesday. Trough lingers in far southwest, slowly expanding into low pressure over central and southern Queensland. Succession of trough systems bring enhanced rainfall to New South Wales and southern Queensland on Friday and next weekend.
4-day
Monday: Scattered showers in eastern and central districts, with rain in the Central Coast. Thunderstorms in the northwest and Cape York Peninsula. Isolated showers in the far southwest. Clear elsewhere. Increasing winds and seas on the east coast as Tropical Cyclone Jasper nears, with damaging gusts between Ayr and Mackay. Moderate to fresh winds in eastern districts. Light to moderate winds elsewhere, turning southwest to northwesterly in the northwest and south to southwesterly in the far west. Severe heatwave conditions in the far north and northwest.
Wednesday: Expect showers, some rain, a possible thunderstorm, and heavy rainfall in parts of eastern districts between Cape Melville and Townsville. There may be strong winds, potential storm surge, depending on Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Showers and thunderstorms may occur in other areas, except in the southeast where it will be partly cloudy. The northwest will experience severe heatwave conditions, with above-average temperatures. In the northeast, temperatures will be below average, while elsewhere will have near-average temperatures.
Thursday: Expect showers and rain with possible thunderstorms and heavy falls over Cape York Peninsula. Other areas will have scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in Cape York Peninsula due to Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Northwest and southeast regions will experience severe heatwaves. Maximum temperatures will be above average in the northwest and southeast, below average in Cape York Peninsula, and near average elsewhere.
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in Cape York Peninsula, becoming isolated by evening. Showers and thunderstorms elsewhere except far southwest. Mostly sunny in far southwest on weekend. Severe heatwave in southeast. Above average temps in west and southeast, below average in Cape York Peninsula.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 28 to 36, Min temperature: 19 to 24, Wind speed: damaging gusts possible, Wind direction: variable, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible, Partly cloudy with Tropical Cyclone Jasper.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: southeasterly 35 to 50 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, damaging winds possible with Tropical Cyclone Jasper.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
The weather will be cloudy with a high chance of showers and thunderstorms. Maximum temperature will be between 26 to 32 degrees Celsius, with overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s. Wind speeds will be southeasterly at 30 to 45 km/h, turning easterly at 25 to 40 km/h in the morning.
Peninsula:
The weather will have a max temperature in the mid to high 30s, a min temperature in the low to mid 20s, wind speeds of 15 to 40 km/h, wind direction from west to southwesterly, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with partly cloudy conditions.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 37 to 42, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: northwest to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, Wind direction: northwest to southwesterly then northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: Mostly sunny, medium chance of showers in the north, most likely in the morning, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, Other: Chance of a thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temp: 39, Min temp: 20, Wind: ESE 25-40 km/h, Rain: Showers, Thunderstorm, Cloud: Partly cloudy
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h (easterly), Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: near zero chance of rain, Other: Cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north, most likely in the morning and afternoon.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: 19-22, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h increasing to 35 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers in the north, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, Other: cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in the northwest.
Central West:
Max temperature: 38, min temperature: low 20s, wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, wind direction: east to northeasterly, rainfall: medium chance of showers in afternoon and evening, other: partly cloudy.
North West:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly in the morning and east to southeasterly, Rainfall: none, Conditions: Sunny.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: 20-26, Wind speed: 15-30 km/h, Wind direction: southeast to southwesterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower in northeast evening otherwise near zero chance. Mostly sunny.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 38, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h from the northeast, Rainfall: Near zero chance, Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in northwest in late afternoon/evening.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: 15-20, Wind: east to northeasterly 15-25 km/h, Rainfall: none, Other: Mostly sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
The maximum temperature will be 29-34 with easterly winds of 20-30 km/h becoming light in the late evening, and minimum temperatures falling to 17-22 overnight while being partly cloudy with rainfall.
Southeast Coast:
The maximum temperature will be around 30 with overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 21, light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late evening, partly cloudy with no rainfall.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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