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2024 Wally's Weather Calendar
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Special report
Christmas:
Continuing to look ahead to Christmas day, and still, those storms appear to be dominant for QLD and NSW. Note the change in location from yesterday's forecast, we will see this jump around a bit as the shape of the trough is refined. Showers are still expected for the coast but this has changed a bit also. What we do know, it's going to be humid and stormy but where those storms will be, you will have to keep watching this special report.
Christmas day rainfall forecast
Storms:
Lows, troughs & moist winds bring showers & storms to QLD's north & south, the NT Top End & WA's Kimberley & northern NSW. The weather system drags in heat across the north & west. Strong S winds will bring showers to the NSW coast & Vic. A high-pressure ridge will keep elsewhere dry.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for East of Flinders Island. Cancellation for Far North West, Central North and Upper East coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for East Gippsland Coast. Cancellation for Port Phillip, Western Port & Central Gippsland Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Sydney Enclosed Waters & Coffs, Macquarie, Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Illawarra and Central Tablelands.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The St Pauls River.
Strong Wind Warning for Geraldton, Lancelin, Leeuwin and Esperance coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Midwest Inland, Lesueur, Yarra Yarra, Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Brockman, and Mortlock.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Moderate Flood Warning For The Murray River And Minor Flood Warning For The Tully River.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent & Upper West and Lower West coasts.
Minor Flood Warning For The Daintree And Flood Warning For The Mossman River.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Cape York Peninsula.
Flood Warning For The Russell River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Herbert River.
Final Flood Warning For The Barron River.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Midwest Inland, Lesueur, Yarra Yarra, and Mortlock.
Final Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Storms 2PM maturing
National
Trough weakens over far northern Cape York Peninsula. Ridge weakens along east coast. Trough moves east across southwest, central, and southern Queensland, enhancing showers and thunderstorms. Trough becomes low pressure on the weekend. New trough may cross central and southern Queensland, increasing rainfall next week.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A trough weakens over Cape York, while a ridge weakens over the east coast. Another trough drifts east across Queensland, enhancing showers. The trough will become a low pressure area over the weekend. A new trough may increase rainfall over east and north Queensland next week.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Wednesday: Possible heavy showers and thunderstorms in the north. Chance of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain in the southwest and southern interior. Occasional showers elsewhere except in the southeast. Clear skies in the southeast. Winds will be light to moderate, shifting to the southwest in the far southwest.
Thursday: Thursday: Some showers and thunderstorms across the state, except for the far southwest. Showers mainly between Cooktown and Mackay. Showers becoming more widespread in southeastern and central Queensland east of Longreach, and the northern region near Coen. Possible severe thunderstorms with strong winds and heavy rain in the central and southern interior. Partly cloudy in the far southwest. Temperatures below average in the southern interior, average elsewhere.
Friday: Possibility of showers and thunderstorms across the state, except the far southwest. Showers becoming more widespread in southeastern and central Queensland east of Emerald. Potential for severe thunderstorms inland with damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain in southeastern, southern, and central districts. Mostly sunny in the far southwest. Temperatures below average in the south, above average in the northwest, and near average elsewhere.
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms statewide, except in the far west. Widespread at times in the southeast. Mostly sunny in the far west. Below-average temperatures in the southeast, above-average in the northwest, and near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: 15-20 km/h becoming light, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers near the coast and slight chance elsewhere.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
The max temperature will be in the low to mid 30s, the min temperature will be in the low 20s, wind speed will be light, wind direction will be northeasterly, there is a slight chance of a shower in the north and near zero chance elsewhere, and light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
The day will be mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 30s, light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the late evening, and overnight temperatures falling to between 19 and 22.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: Low to mid 30s, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: East to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with a very high chance of showers north of Coen and a medium chance elsewhere, Thunderstorm: Chance of a thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Mostly sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the south. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Thunderstorms possible. Winds North to Northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h. Overnight temperatures in low to high 20s, daytime temperatures in mid to high 30s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 33 to 39. Min temperature: 19 to 25. Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h. Wind direction: north to northeasterly, tending east to northeasterly, then tending north to northeasterly. Rainfall: Mostly sunny with medium chance of showers in the south and near zero chance elsewhere. Other: Chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: 19-22; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: northeasterly becoming light; Rainfall: medium chance of showers; Other: partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm in the southwest in the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures falling.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: around 20, wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, wind direction: north to northeasterly, rainfall: very high chance of showers, other: partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Central West:
Forecast: Max temp high 30s, min temp low to mid 20s, wind NE 15-25 km/h becoming NW-NE 20-30 km/h morning, then E-NE 15-20 km/h evening, showers in SE, chance elsewhere, possible thunderstorm.
North West:
Max temperature: 40 degrees, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, changing wind direction and speed throughout the day.
Channel Country:
Max temperature will be 33 to 39 with wind speed of 25 to 35 km/h, partly cloudy with medium chance of showers and thunderstorm, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, chance of raised dust in the northwest, overnight temperatures falling to low to mid 20s.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, Other conditions: Partly cloudy with chance of severe thunderstorm.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temp: low 30s, Min temp: 18-22, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h (morning), 20-30 km/h (afternoon), Wind direction: northeasterly (morning), east-northeasterly (daytime), Rainfall: Partly cloudy with very high chance of showers in southwest, medium chance elsewhere, Thunderstorm: yes.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: 18-21, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Northeasterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm in the south.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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