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Special report
Monsoon:
The weather system known as INVEST 92P, which was initially near the Solomon Islands, northeast of Honiara, Guadalcanal. Satellite images and microwave data show a broad, partially exposed low-level circulation center with disorganized flaring convection. Environmental analysis suggests favorable conditions for development, including good upper-level outflow, low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30°C). However, the system's development may be hindered by interaction with land as it moves over the Solomon Islands. Global models predict that 92P will move westward over the next 48 hours and continue to develop. The estimated maximum sustained surface winds are 15 to 20 knots, and the minimum sea level pressure is around 1006 mb. There is a medium likelihood of it becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Storms:
Troughs potentially bringing showers & storms to WA, NT Top End & far north QLD, also directing hot winds into SA and WA. A front expected to bring showers and brisk winds to TAS. High pressure likely to keep the southern mainland mostly dry.
Weather warnings include:
Strong wind warnings for Upper East and Lower East coasts on Monday, and Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts.
Minor and moderate flood warnings for various rivers, including Cann, Genoa, Bunyip, Snowy, Buchan, Avon, Mitchell, Latrobe, Thomson, Macalister, Tambo, Nicholson, Paroo (Qld and Nsw), St Georges Basin, Lower Weir, Barcoo, and Moonie rivers.
Fire Weather Warning for Eastern Eyre Peninsula.
Storm probabilities 2PM | Rain Accumulation 3 days | Rain 8 x 24 hour accumulated | JTWC Monsoon System Tracking
National
Troughs are causing rain and storms in the far north of Western Australia, the Top End of the Northern Territory, Queensland, and southeastern New South Wales. At the same time, they're pulling in warm weather to Queensland, the central interior, and inland Western Australia. A high-pressure system is keeping South Australia, Tasmania, and the inland areas of the eastern states mostly dry. However, it is also bringing showers to New South Wales from the coast.
State
Weak pressure gradient and warm unstable mass in northern QLD, trough from western QLD to southeast. Southern branch of trough moves off SE coast on Monday, inland portion weakens. High moves into Tasman Sea, extends ridge northward over east of state. Ridge persists most of the week, high drifts slowly east. New trough may move across southern QLD over weekend. Tropical low near Solomon Islands moves west on Monday, high chance of developing into tropical cyclone in far northeastern Coral Sea from Tuesday. Low forecast to drift south with further development, remain east of QLD with no direct impacts in next 7 days.
4-day
Monday: Some showers and thunderstorms in northern and eastern districts. Showers could spread inland in the tropical northeast. Severe thunderstorms possible in central Queensland. Clear in the southwest and southern interior. Winds change direction.
Tuesday: Isolated showers in east, scattered showers on east coast/Far North Queensland. Chance of thunderstorms inland of east coast in central/northern Queensland. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Severe heatwave in southwest, Gulf Country, and western Peninsula. Average max temps in east, above average elsewhere.
Wednesday: Wednesday: Showers on east coast north of Mackay, scattered on North Tropical Coast and eastern Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms in northwest and western Peninsula. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Severe heatwave in southwest, parts of Gulf Country and western Peninsula. Strong winds increase fire risk in central and interior Queensland. Temperatures near average in east, above average elsewhere, and well above average in southwest, south, and southeast interior.
Thursday: East coast north of Mackay: isolated showers becoming scattered.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Mostly sunny with chance of thunderstorm, max temperature 36, min temperature 19, wind speed 15-25 km/h easterly, rainfall expected.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, most likely in afternoon and evening, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm in late morning.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance, Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers inland and slight chance elsewhere, chance of thunderstorm in late morning and afternoon.
Peninsula:
Maximum temperature in the mid to high 30s, minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming easterly at 15 to 25 km/h, mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers north of Coen and near zero chance elsewhere, and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind: light, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in late morning.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light to 20km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Mostly sunny with slight chance of a shower in the north, thunderstorm possible, light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly then light, temperatures falling to 19-24°C overnight and reaching mid to high 30s during the day.
Central West:
Max temperature: 36-42, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly to east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the northeast, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
North West:
Max temperature: low 40s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Sunny day, Other: Chance of thunderstorm east of Mt Isa in the late afternoon and evening.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40°C, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: south to southeasterly 15-20 km/h to east to southeasterly 15-25 km/h, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The weather will be sunny with light winds becoming southerly, then southeasterly in the late evening, and temperatures ranging from 18 to the mid-high 30s.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Mostly sunny with near zero chance of rain, temperatures between 17 and 20 overnight and low to high 30s during the day, light winds becoming 15-25 km/h from northeast to southeasterly, slight chance of a shower over the Granite Belt in the afternoon and evening, and chance of a thunderstorm in the far east.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Partly cloudy day with high chance of showers, thunderstorms in late morning, light winds becoming NE to SE 15-20 km/h in early afternoon, overnight temp 18-22°C, daytime temp 32-37°C.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30 degrees, Min temperature: 17-21 degrees, Wind speed: light to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance showers, Thunderstorm possible.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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