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Special report
Monsoon:
The weather system known as INVEST 92P seems like there is a center where things are starting to come together. The conditions around it are good for it to grow, with strong air moving out, not much wind from the sides (5-10 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (29-30°C). The experts who study this say it will likely move in a certain direction and get stronger over the next 48 hours. The winds around it might be around 20 to 25 knots, and the pressure at sea level is about 1002 mb. There's a medium chance it could become a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Storms:
Troughs will bring showers and storms to WA's interior, north, the NT's north, and QLD's north. Troughs will drive hot winds deeper into the interiors of the NT, WA, SA, and NSW.
A front will cool TAS and bring a few showers. A high will keep much of NSW, VIC, SA, and southern WA dry.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Ningaloo, Gascoyne, and Geraldton coasts.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Gippsland Lakes.
Final Flood Warning For The Bunyip River.
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Far West, Upper West, and Lower West coasts.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Snowy River And Minor Flood Warning For The Buchan River.
Strong Wind Warning for Upper East and Lower East coasts.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Final Flood Warning For The Avon River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Mitchell River.
Final Flood Warning For The Lower Weir River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning For The Latrobe River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River.
Final Flood Warning For The Bemm, Cann, And Genoa Rivers.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Thomson River.
Final Flood Warning For The Macalister River.
Final Flood Warning For The Tambo And Nicholson Rivers.
Final Flood Warning For The Moonie River.
Fire Weather Warning for Eastern Eyre Peninsula.
Storm probabilities 2PM | Rain Accumulation 3 days | Rain 8 x 24 hour accumulated | BOM Tracking
National
Weak pressure gradient and warm unstable air over northern Queensland persist as a trough extends from western to southeast Queensland. Southern part of trough moves off South East coast today, while inland portion weakens and drifts west. High moves into Tasman Sea, extending ridge over east of state. Ridge remains most of week as high drifts east. New trough might move across southern Queensland this weekend. Tropical low near Solomon Islands moves west today, with high chance of becoming tropical cyclone in far northeastern Coral Sea from Tuesday. Low forecasted to drift south later this week with further development likely, but no direct impact expected on Queensland coast in next 7 days.
State
Unstable air and weak pressure in northern Queensland, with a trough extending from western to southeastern Queensland. The southern part of the trough moves off the coast while the inland part weakens. A high pressure system moves into the Tasman Sea, extending a ridge over the eastern part of the state. This ridge remains for most of the week as the high slowly moves east. There is a possibility of a new trough moving across southern Queensland over the weekend. A tropical low near the Solomon Islands moves west and could develop into a cyclone in the far northeastern Coral Sea from Tuesday. The low is expected to move south with further development, but it will remain well east of the Queensland coast with no direct impacts in the next 7 days.
4-day
Tuesday: Isolated showers, some severe thunderstorms possible in east, clear in southwest. Variable winds.
Wednesday: Isolated showers on the east coast, scattered showers on the North Tropical Coast and eastern Peninsula. Isolated showers and chance of thunderstorm in northwest and western Peninsula. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Severe heatwave in southwest, parts of Gulf Country and western Peninsula. Strong winds increase fire dangers. Temperatures near/below average in eastern districts, above average elsewhere, well above average in southwest and interior.
Thursday: East coast north of Mackay: isolated showers, becoming scattered on North Tropical Coast. Western Peninsula and southern Gulf coast: isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Severe heatwave in the southwest and southern interior. Windy conditions in central and interior districts, elevating fire dangers. Average temperatures in the east and northeast, above average elsewhere with very high temperatures in the southwest, southern, and southeastern interior.
Friday: Scattered showers along the east coast, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf coast. Partly cloudy in the east, mostly sunny elsewhere. Severe heatwave in southwest and southern interior. Strong winds in east coast south of Townsville. High fire dangers in central and southern Queensland. Maximum temperatures near average in east and central, above average elsewhere, and well above average in inland southern Queensland.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h from the east to southeasterly direction, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with a medium chance of showers near the coast, slight chance elsewhere. Chance of thunderstorm inland.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 31 to 36; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h; Wind direction: easterly; Rainfall: slight chance of a shower; Other: mostly sunny with chance of thunderstorm in the south in the afternoon and evening.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Mostly sunny with chance of thunderstorm inland in afternoon and evening.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h; Wind direction: easterly; Rainfall: medium chance of showers near west coast, slight chance elsewhere; Weather: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind: NE 15-20 km/h, Rainfall: Slight chance of shower, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 41, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, wind direction: east to northeasterly, rainfall: slight chance of a shower with chance of a thunderstorm, weather: mostly sunny.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Other conditions: partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: easterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, other: mostly sunny with chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Central West:
Max temperature: 35 to 42, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Rainfall: nil, Other: Sunny morning, chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
North West:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Sunny morning with chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Channel Country:
Maximum temperature: low to mid 40s, minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h (east to southeasterly), chance of a thunderstorm in the north in the late afternoon and evening, other: sunny day.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Maximum temperature: 40, Minimum temperature: 20, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east-southeasterly, Rainfall: Sunny
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: 17, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: none, Weather: Mostly sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: 18, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h east, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: partly cloudy, overnight temperatures falling to 18-22.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 17-21, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: East, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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