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Monsoon update
Ex TC Kirrily is about to kick back up a gear and the rain will become heavy over the NW of QLD for the next 4 days at least.
The monsoon phase is moving into 7 but is likely to stall and head back to 6. To give you an idea this diagram shows blue and green where the monsoon is strongest, ie the monsoon pulse.
The movement of Ex TC Kirrily showing below with the 3 major models. The intensity is the main factor. But the NW should expect heavy rain that could lead to flooding. We still can't look more than 2 days ahead with this, the models change a lot between Friday and Saturday. There is an interplay between the new ECL 06U off the coast of QLD and Ex TC Kirrily which means they will influence each other. Not sure how yet.
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
Troughs and a low will generate rain, showers, and thunderstorms over northern parts of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia. A trough extending over the west coast will draw hot and dry winds. A front crossing Tasmania will lead to gusty winds and showers.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is slowly moving northwards in northwestern Queensland, causing heavy rain and flooding. It is expected to move towards the Gulf Country District and then south over inland western Queensland. There is a trough across western and central Queensland between the cyclone and a low in the Coral Sea, resulting in tropical moisture across most of the state. However, the southeast has high pressure, while the southwest has a slow-moving trough. A coastal ridge in the southeast will extend further north along the coast, pushing a trough into northern Queensland later this week.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Thursday: Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms across state, widespread in central to northern Queensland. Possible severe thunderstorms, heavy falls in central to northern Queensland and between Mackay and Ingham on east coast. Heavy rainfall possible in northwestern Queensland near ex-Cyclone Kirrily. Fresh to strong, gusty southeasterly winds along southeast coast. Moderate south to southeasterly winds in southern Queensland. Light to moderate north to northwesterly winds in the north, occasionally fresh on west Peninsula coast.
Friday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in central/northern districts north of Mackay to Boulia, tending widespread at times in parts of far northern QLD, Gulf Country, and northeast tropical coast. Isolated showers in central districts. Partly cloudy conditions south of Mackay over southern QLD. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible in parts of northern/far northern QLD. More widespread heavy falls and localised damaging wind gusts possible in northwestern QLD depending on ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily's movement. Fresh and gusty winds about the Gulf Country and also developing about the North West. Max temperatures below average in northwest, northern and central interior, parts of the Gulf Country and North West. Otherwise, tending above average in southern/southeast QLD and near average elsewhere.
Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in northern districts north of Townsville to Boulia, becoming widespread in some areas of far northern Queensland, the Gulf Country, and the North Tropical Coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in southeast and central Queensland, central west, and Channel Country. Partly cloudy in inland southern Queensland. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and damaging winds possible in parts of northwestern Queensland. Potential for heavy rainfall in northwestern Queensland depending on ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily's movement. Below average temperatures in northwest and northern interior, well below average in parts of the Gulf Country and North West, and above average elsewhere.
Sunday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in central, northern, and western districts. Heavy rain possible in the far west due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Moderate to heavy rain possible in parts of northern Queensland. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms in southeastern inland areas. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Below average temperatures in the west and southwest, near or above average in the southeast and northwest.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northwesterly 15-20km/h, Wind direction: variable, Rainfall: very high chance of showers, Thunderstorm: possible severe, Overnight temperatures: low to mid 20s, Daytime temperatures: 29 to 34.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: cloudy with chance of severe thunderstorm overnight.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming east to southeasterly 15-20 km/h in the morning, Wind direction: variable, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: northwesterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
The weather will be cloudy with a very high chance of rain and a chance of severe thunderstorms. Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly, Rainfall: heavy falls possible in the west.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon, Wind direction: variable, Rainfall: very high chance of showers, Other: cloudy with a chance of a severe thunderstorm in the late morning.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature: low to mid 30s; Minimum temperature: 19-24; Wind speed: southeasterly 15-20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming southeasterly 15-25 km/h in the morning; Wind direction: southeasterly; Rainfall: Mostly sunny; Other: Overnight temperatures falling.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Maximum temperature reaching the low to mid 30s, minimum temperature falling to the low to mid 20s, wind speed becoming light, wind direction turning east to southeasterly, chance of showers in the northwest in the morning, chance of a thunderstorm in the north.
Central West:
Max temperature: 34 to 39, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy, medium chance of showers north of Longreach in the morning and afternoon, near zero chance elsewhere, Thunderstorm: possible.
North West:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of rain, Thunderstorm possible, Heavy falls possible north of Mt Isa.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h (south to southeasterly), Wind direction: sunny morning, Rainfall: raised dust in the northwest, Other: chance of thunderstorm in the northwest in the afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 41, Min temperature: 21, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: NE to SE, Rainfall: 0, Other: Sunny, Light winds becoming light in the late evening and overnight temperatures falling to 21 to 26.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, minimum temperature: 17-22, wind speed: 15-25 km/h, wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, rainfall: none, other: Sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
The weather includes a max temperature of around 30, min temperature between 18 and 23, wind speed of 20-30 km/h becoming light, wind direction southeasterly, and some rain with a slight chance of showers on Fraser Island and near zero chance elsewhere. It will be partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 18-22, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: south to east, Rainfall: slight chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Central North, South East, South West, and Central West coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Thursday for Central, Central Gippsland, and East Gippsland coasts, as well as Eden Coast.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rain) for Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Herbert and Herbert/Lower Burdekin, Central West and Central Highlands and Coalfields.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Dawson River.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall) for parts of Gulf Country and North West.
Major Flood Warning for the Condamine River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bremer River And Warrill Creek.
Major Flood Warning for the Moonie River.
Gale Warning For Western, Southeastern, and Southern Areas.
Major Flood Warning for the Flinders River and minor flood warning for the Cloncurry River.
Strong Wind Warning for Hervey Bay, Sunshine Coast Waters and Capricornia, and Fraser Island coasts.
Heatwave Warning for Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland.
Fire Weather Warning for Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Capes, Brockman, Blackwood, and Southern Forests.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent, and Adelaide Metropolitan Waters.
Minor Flood Warning for the Diamantina River, Bulloo River, and the Thomson and Barcoo Rivers, and Cooper Creek.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River (New South Wales).
Moderate Flood Warning for the Daly River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Fitzroy River.
Final Flood Watch For Parts Of Central Queensland And Coastal Catchments Between Gladstone And Caboolture.
Flood Watch For The Georgina River And Eyre Creek And Parts Of Gulf Of Carpentaria.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Queensland).
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Queensland).
Flood Watch For Parts Of Carpentaria Coast And Eastern Inland Northern Territory.
Final Gale Warning For Southeastern And Southern Areas.
Final Flood Warning For The Burrum And Cherwell Rivers Catchments.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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