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Monsoon update
While Ex TC Kirrily looks impressive still, our eyes are shifting now to the East Coast Low starting to move into warmer waters and possibly then moving towards the QLD coast. The current models 4 days out are now closely in alignment, where earlier in the evening of Friday they were not. We will watch this but not be concerned too much until we see it possibly crossing the QLD coast with model alignment.
EC | ACCESS | GFS
National
A low and troughs will bring rain, showers, and storms to north QLD, NT Top End, and northern WA, with the heaviest rainfall expected in NW QLD near the low. Troughs will broaden across the interior, causing heat to spread east and south. A front will bring cooler gusty winds to southern WA and later TAS.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-tropical cyclone Kirrily near southern Gulf of Carpentaria causes heavy rain, flooding, damaging winds. Moving south to western Queensland. Trough across northern Queensland between ex-cyclone and Coral Sea low brings unsettled conditions on North Tropical Coast. Cooler, less humid conditions south of the trough. High pressure brings settled conditions in southeastern Queensland.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Saturday: Scattered showers and storms north of Winton to Bowen, possibly severe with heavy rain. Widespread showers in Gulf Country with heavy rain and strong winds from ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Clear elsewhere. Light to moderate east to southeast winds in southern and central Queensland. Moderate to fresh north to northwest winds in far north and northwest, with possible gale force winds along the Gulf Coast and islands.
Sunday: Scattered showers and isolated storms in the north and west. Widespread showers with heavy rain possible in the Channel Country due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Isolated coastal showers in the east. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Cooler in western Queensland, warmer elsewhere.
Monday: There will be showers and thunderstorms in many areas, including the interior, northern districts north of Mackay, and the North Tropical Coast and Peninsula. Some thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rain in the far southwest near the NSW border, depending on ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. There will be isolated showers along the east coast south of Mackay. The rest of the areas will be partly cloudy. Maximum temperatures will be below average in the west and above average elsewhere.
Tuesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms in interior and eastern districts north of Mackay, scattered in Far North Queensland. Scattered showers in eastern districts south of Mackay. Below average max temperatures in far west, above average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: around 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible, Partly cloudy.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: NA, rainfall: high chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, additional info: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: none, Weather: Mostly sunny.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: mid 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: northwesterly, rainfall: high chance of showers, other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeast to southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly before dawn then northerly in the evening, Rainfall: high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon, with heavy falls possible in the south, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm and damaging winds possible in the west.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Partly cloudy.
Capricornia:
The weather will have a maximum temperature in the low to high 30s, minimum temperature in the low 20s, light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h, no rainfall, and it will be sunny.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The weather will be mostly sunny with light winds in the morning, becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the afternoon, with overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s and daytime temperatures reaching the mid to high 30s.
Central West:
Max temperature: around 40. Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s. Wind speed: becoming northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h. Wind direction: northeasterly. Rainfall: near zero chance of rain. Other: Mostly sunny with medium chance of showers in the northwest and chance of thunderstorm in the late morning.
North West:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of rain, Other: Cloudy, Chance of a thunderstorm, Heavy falls possible, Damaging winds possible.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 43°C, Min temperature: 30°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: Mostly sunny with medium chance of rain near NT border, thunderstorm in north, heavy falls possible near NT border, damaging winds possible near NT border
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h becoming southeasterly early then shifting north to northeasterly, Rainfall: 0, Other: Sunny, light winds.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 33 to 41°C, Min temperature: low to mid 20s°C, Wind: Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 36, min temperature: low 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: easterly, rainfall: none, weather: mostly sunny.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Gale Warning for Saturday for Geraldton Coast. Strong Wind Warning for Saturday for Perth Local Waters & Gascoyne, Lancelin, Perth & Bun Geographes.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Midwest Inland, and Mortlock.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for parts of Carpentaria and Barkly districts.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for parts of Gulf Country and North West.
Strong Wind Warning for Gove Peninsula and Roper Groote coasts.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Moonie River.
Hazardous Surf Warning for Saturday for Byron, Coffs, Macquarie, Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for South East Gulf of Carpentaria.
Gale Warning for Southeastern And Southern Areas.
Gale Warning for East Gippsland Coast. Strong Wind Warning for Central and Central Gippsland coasts.
Major Flood Warning for The Flinders River. Minor Flood Warning for The Cloncurry River.
Final Flood Warning for The Herbert River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Bulloo River.
Gale Warning for Storm Bay, Central Plateau Lakes, South West Lakes & Lower East, South East & South West coasts.
Gale Warning for Eden Coast.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning for The Thomson And Barcoo Rivers And Cooper Creek.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Diamantina River.
Major Flood Warning for The Condamine And Balonne Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for The Paroo River (Nsw).
Initial Flood Watch For Far West Of New South Wales.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Carpentaria Coast, Eastern And Central Inland.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Gulf Of Carpentaria And Western Queensland.
Minor Flood Warning for The Lower Warrego River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning for The Daly River.
Initial Minor Flood Warning for The Nicholson And Leichhardt Rivers.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Georgina River. Minor Flood Warning for The Eyre Creek.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Dawson River. Minor Flood Warning for The Connors And Isaac Rivers.
Final Flood Warning for The Haughton River Catchment.
Fire Weather Warning for Swan Inland North, Swan Inland South, Brockman, and Blackwood.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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