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Monsoon update
06U in 4 days shows some variation between models still. And over the next week to two weeks for the region of the Coral Sea through to Fiji, there could be quite a bit of monsoonal activity. Lots of whack-o-mole coming up. And until we see something we will let them speculate. For now 06U has our attention now that Ex TC Kirrily should be gone by tomorrow.
EC | ACCESS | GFS
National
A trough is expected to bring brisk winds, showers, and storms to NSW. Troughs will generate showers, rain, and storms over the north and possibly the eastern interior. A front will cross Tasmania late, bringing a burst of showers. A high-pressure system will maintain dry conditions elsewhere.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily has moved to New South Wales. Weak troughs will move across Queensland and Cape York Peninsula through the week. A ridge will strengthen over southeastern Queensland. A low in the Coral Sea will stay offshore and may drift slightly west before moving southeast. It could combine with the ridge to increase coastal winds.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Tuesday: Showers & storms west of Emerald. Severe storms possible in southwest. Scattered showers between Bundaberg & Sunshine Coast. Clear elsewhere. NW-NE winds turning SE-SW. NE-SE winds along east coast below Bowen.
Wednesday: Patchy showers and storms in the north and east, mainly showers on the southeast coast. Widespread showers at times in Cape York Peninsula. Mostly sunny in the southwest. Temps below average in the far southwest, near average north of Hughenden, and above average elsewhere.
Thursday: Most of the state will experience isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with only showers in eastern Queensland south of Townsville. There will be widespread showers at times over northern Cape York Peninsula. The far southwest will be mostly sunny. Maximum temperatures will be below average in the far southwest, above average in central districts, and near average elsewhere.
Friday: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the state, mainly showers in eastern Queensland south of Townsville. Mostly sunny in the far southwest. Above average temperatures in the central and southern interior, near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 33, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: n/a, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, other: Cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible inland.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: not specified; Rainfall: high chance of showers; Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible in the north.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower inland, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm inland from late morning.
Peninsula:
The weather forecast: Max temp in the low to mid 30s, min temp in the mid 20s, wind speed light becoming westerly 15-20 km/h in the early afternoon then light in the late afternoon, chance of showers and thunderstorm, and partly cloudy.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low to high 30s, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: not specified, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the east, medium chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm: possible and severe in the east, Others: Partly cloudy.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 31 to 38, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe
Capricornia:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: becoming east to northeasterly, Rainfall: none, Weather: Mostly sunny.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light becoming south to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, wind direction: various, rainfall: partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the northwest and slight chance elsewhere, chance of a severe thunderstorm.
Central West:
Max temperature: around 40, min temperature: low to mid-20s, wind speed: becoming southeast to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h then southerly 25 to 35 km/h, wind direction: southeast to southwesterly then southerly, rainfall: high chance of showers in northeast, slight chance elsewhere, other: mostly sunny with chance of severe thunderstorm.
North West:
Max temperature: around 40, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm, light winds becoming stronger in early afternoon.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 32 to 40, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: S to SE 25-35 km/h, Rainfall: Mostly sunny with slight chance of showers near NT border, Thunderstorm possible in afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: high 30s, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: 15-20 km/h to 25-40 km/h, wind direction: northwest to southwesterly, rainfall: slight chance of a shower, mostly sunny, chance of a thunderstorm.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Maximum temperature: 38, Minimum temperature: 20, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly shifting south to southwesterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm in late afternoon and evening.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: none, Other: Partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Slight chance of a shower about the southern border ranges, Other: Partly cloudy. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of North East and East Gippsland.
Strong Wind Warning for Perth Local Waters & Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth, and Bunbury Geographe coasts.
Sheep Graziers Warning for S Tablelands, CW Slopes/Plains, South West Slopes, Upper Western, Lower Western, Snowy Mountains, ACT & South Coast.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Intense Rain) for S Tablelands, SW Slopes & C Tablelands, CW Slopes/Plains, Riverina, L Western, U Western & ACT.
Major Flood Warning For The Nicholson River And Flood Warning For The Leichhardt River.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent, and Adelaide Metropolitan Waters.
Strong Wind Warning for Coffs, Macquarie, Hunter, and Eden coasts. Cancellation for Sydney and Illawarra coasts.
Initial Flood Warning For The Inland Rivers SA.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Major Flood Warning For The Flinders River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Flood Watch For Far West And South West Of New South Wales.
Minor Flood Warning For The Lower Warrego River (Qld).
Moderate Flood Warning For The Georgina River And Minor Flood Warning For The Eyre Creek.
Major Flood Warning For The Moonie River.
Final Flood Watch For Parts Of The Carpentaria Coast, Eastern And Central Inland.
Minor Flood Warning For The Dawson And Final Flood Warning For The Connors And Isaac Rivers.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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