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Monsoon update
With the monsoon trough dropping over land, the likelihood of a cyclone reduces. However there is still one out to the far West that is likely to become the second cyclone within Australian concern waters for the season. As the monsoon pulse moves East, we should see the Gulf become the next most active region. However again it depends on the position of the monsoon trough.
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BOM
Tropical Low 04U
Developing tropical low northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
This low is expected to develop only slowly but could become a tropical cyclone next week.
It is initially expected to be slow moving but will likely move southwest from Tuesday.
If it moves close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, it may lead to an increase in showers or storm activity.
Last updated
2 hours ago, 07:05 pm AEST
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National
Tropical lows developing along the monsoon trough will bring heavy rain & storms across the tropics. Other troughs, lows & onshore winds continue to drive showers & storms over WA, SA, western NSW & the eastern seaboard while drawing heat over the interior.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
A monsoon trough with a weak low in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria brings unsettled weather to Far North. The trough and low will move slowly over the next few days. A high pressure ridge across eastern Queensland will be maintained by a new high moving across the Southern Ocean on Saturday and into the Tasman Sea on Monday.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Saturday: Rain and thunderstorms in the far north, heavy falls possible. Showers and thunderstorms in western Queensland, some severe with heavy rain and strong winds. Showers and thunderstorms in eastern districts, becoming only showers in the southeast. Winds from northeast to southeasterly, shifting to northwest to northeasterly in northern Cape York Peninsula.
Sunday: Rain and thunderstorms likely in Far North Queensland, with heavy falls possible. Some showers in southern areas. Chance of thunderstorm between St Lawrence and New South Wales border. Mostly sunny in central and southern interior. Temperatures below average in Far North and east, near average elsewhere.
Monday: Scattered showers, rain, and possible thunderstorms in Far North QLD and the Gulf Country with heavy falls. Isolated showers elsewhere, becoming scattered in the east, chance of thunderstorms in SW QLD and eastern QLD. Cooler in the Far North and east, near average elsewhere.
Tuesday: Scattered to widespread rain and potential thunderstorms in Far North Queensland and the Gulf Country with heavy local falls possible. Scattered showers and potential thunderstorms in the eastern district. Below average temperatures in the Far North and east, near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temp: 25-30°C, Min temp: low-mid 20s, wind speed: light to easterly 15-20 km/h, rain: Cloudy with high chance of rain, mainly in late morning and afternoon, chance of severe thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: Around 30, min temperature: Low to mid 20s, wind speed: Light, wind direction: Northwest to northeasterly, rainfall: Cloudy with very high chance of rain, chance of severe thunderstorm in the south and west.
Gulf Country:
Maximum temperature: 36°C, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Thunderstorm: possible and severe in the north, Heavy falls possible near the east coast.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a high chance of showers in the north and a slight chance elsewhere. There is a chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe in the north. The wind will be easterly, ranging from 15 to 30 km/h. The overnight temperature will be in the low 20s, while the daytime temperature will reach 31 to 37.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, wind direction: southeasterly, rainfall: medium chance of showers, other: partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The day will start with partly cloudy weather, a slight chance of showers, and the possibility of a thunderstorm in the late morning, with light winds becoming east to southeasterly at 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then becoming light in the evening. Overnight temperatures will drop to the low 20s, while daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s.
Central West:
Max temperature: 34 to 39°C, Min temperature: low 20s°C, Wind speed: easterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: Mostly sunny.
North West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: easterly 15 to 20 km/h, becoming light before dawn then easterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning; Wind direction: east; Rainfall: mostly sunny with slight chance of shower in the northwest and near zero chance elsewhere; Other: chance of thunderstorm north of Mt Isa.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower, Mostly sunny with thunderstorm chance in southeast later.
Maranoa and Warrego:
The weather in New South Wales will reach mid to high 30s with overnight temperatures dropping to low 20s, winds ranging from east to northeasterly, with a chance of thunderstorms near the border and rainfall in the late afternoon and evening.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temp: 37, Min temp: 20, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east-southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance in east, near zero chance elsewhere.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: Low 20s, Wind speed: Southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: Southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers with a chance of thunderstorm, Other: Partly cloudy with temperatures falling overnight.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 19-22, Wind speed: light winds becoming southeasterly 20-30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late evening, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon, The chance of a thunderstorm, Other: Partly cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Central West, Lower West, Central Wheat Belt, and Gascoyne districts.
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast West & Bunbury Geographe, Leeuwin, Albany & Eucla coasts. Cancellation for Perth Local Waters & Perth Coast.
Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Central, North Central, and Northern Country.
Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Mount Lofty Ranges, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula & Kangaroo Island districts.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Bogan River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Tully River.
Fire Weather Warning for Murraylands.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf & Far West, Upper West, and Lower West coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for South East Coast.
Minor Flood Warning For The Daintree River And Flood Warning For The Mossman River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Goulburn River.
Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (NSW).
Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (NSW).
Initial Flood Watch For The North Western NT.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Mulgrave And Russell Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning For The Loddon River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River.
Final Flood Warning For The Yarra River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Latrobe River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Thomson River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Seven Creeks.
Final Flood Warning For The Dawson River.
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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