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Monsoon update
While I think some weather enthusiasts are starting to tone done their chaser roots and respect the fact that we need to provide people with real information and not clickbait, there still are some that will never learn. However, again we look 4 days ahead, and those who like to know my thoughts further than that can grab a big shout and still see a measured view but bear in mind the error involved.
99S has been named by the JTWC, and it is unlikely to develop in the next 24 hours due to being over land. The following shows 3 different models of the same forecast day and time. There is little agreement there. The indication is that the low in the Coral Sea will steal the energy from 99S. That's an interesting concept. Also, we have a High about to move into the Tasman, the Highs are moving through unblocked at the moment, so 5 days between Highs and that should help calculate when a ridge should form along the coast, approximately the 22nd might be when the ridge forms. That dictates the moment. I know that seems hard to visualise, but thats the variables ahead.
ACCESS | ECMWF | GFS
National
Tropical lows along a monsoon trough continue to bring heavy rain & storms across the tropics. Other troughs, onshore winds & a front may continue to drive showers & storms over WA, SA's east, western Vic & NSW and eastern NSW & Qld while maintaining heat in the west.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Monsoon trough persists across Gulf of Carpentaria, Cape York Peninsula, and Coral Sea. Weak tropical low develops on it in western Coral Sea, moving east. High pressure ridge weakens from Tuesday. Trough enters southwestern Queensland on Wednesday, moves east across southern Queensland on Thursday and Friday. Tropical low over Northern Territory may strengthen trough in Gulf of Carpentaria, drawing rainfall inland.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Tuesday: Scattered to widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of rain are expected in the north, far north, and northwest regions. There's a chance of severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in these areas as well. In the southwest, there may also be heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with showers becoming more widespread at times in the southeast. Winds will be light to moderate, coming from the northeast to southeasterly direction, and occasionally picking up along the east coast. Over northern Cape York Peninsula, the winds will shift to northwest to northeasterly.
Wednesday: Widespread showers, scattered thunderstorms, and rain in the north. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong wind in the northwest and south. Isolated showers and storms elsewhere. Temps below normal in the northwest, above in the south and central, average elsewhere.
Thursday: Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the north and northwest, some severe. Showers and storms possible in other areas. Northwest temperatures below average, elsewhere above average.
Friday: Possible rewording: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the far north and northwest, with scattered activity elsewhere. Below average temperatures expected in the west and northwest, while above average temperatures are anticipated elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: showers likely, Cloudy, Severe thunderstorm possible.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h then easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers, most likely in late morning and afternoon, Other: Chance of severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, Overnight temperatures falling.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h from the east to southeasterly direction, Chance of showers: medium with most likely in late morning and afternoon, Chance of thunderstorm: in the afternoon and evening.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: Heavy falls possible south of Coen, Other: Cloudy, Very high chance of rain, Chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe in the east.
Gulf Country:
Today's forecast: Max temperature 30°C, min temperature mid 20s, wind NE 15-25 km/h becoming light in the evening then NE 15-20 km/h in late evening, cloudy with very high chance of showers, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible in the east.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Maximum temperature: 30 to 39 Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h Wind direction: east to northeasterly, increasing to north to northeasterly in the late evening Rainfall: Very high chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere
Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible in the north
Capricornia:
Max temperature: Low 30s, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h turning easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, Other: Partly cloudy conditions with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Tomorrow will have a max temperature in the low to mid 30s with light winds becoming easterly, a chance of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening, and overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s.
Central West:
Tomorrow's weather will have a maximum temperature of 36 to 41, a minimum temperature of low to mid 20s, winds at 20 to 30 km/h and will be mostly sunny with a slight chance of a shower and a chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
North West:
Max temperature: 34 to 41, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers north of Mt Isa, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40°C, Min temperature: 30°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Chance of rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the southeast, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: easterly 15 to 20 km/h, wind direction: east to northeasterly, rainfall: slight chance of shower, other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h Easterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with showers in the east and chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: 15-20km/h to 20-30km/h, Wind direction: Southeasterly to east to southeasterly and light, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening, Partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: 19-22, Wind speed: light becoming 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible, Cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bays & Far North West, Central North and Lower East coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip, Gippsland Lakes & West, Central, Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds And Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Pilbara district.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bellinger River.
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast East, Pilbara Coast West & North Kimberley, Bunbury Geographe, Leeuwin and Albany coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Capes.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy Rainfall And Damaging Winds) for Daly, Tiwi, Gregory and parts of Arnhem, Carpentaria and Barkly districts.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin.
Tropical Cyclone Advice For Cocos Island And Christmas Island.
Ocean Wind Warning For Tropical Cyclone.
Strong Wind Warning for Van Diemen Gulf, Darwin Harbour & Beagle Bonaparte, North Tiwi, Arafura and Gove Peninsula coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for South East Gulf of Carpentaria and North East Gulf of Carpentaria.
Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Initial Flood Warning For The Victoria River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw).
Major Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River.
Flood Watch For The North Western Nt.
Flood Watch For The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The Gulf Of Carpentaria.
Final Flood Warning For The Latrobe River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Tully River And Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Loddon River.
Final Flood Warning For The Bogan River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Goulburn River.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Blackwood.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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