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Morning Weather - January 18 - Wally's Weather Australia

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Monsoon update

INVEST 90P, a weather system, is currently about 850 kilometers east of Cairns, Australia. Satellite imagery shows a broad low-level circulation with increased thunderstorm activity, but the system faces challenges from strong mid-level winds in the southeast. While conditions for development are generally favorable, the slow organization of the circulation is apparent in recent animations. Global models predict gradual strengthening as INVEST 90P moves eastward over the next 24 hours, entering a more conducive environment.


Looking at 90P the low in the Coral Sea, and 4 days out from now, and we can see plenty of difference between the models. Easier if you look at the animations because the EC heads more East, ACCESS heads more South having moved East, and the GFS stays still and deepens. So another 24 to 48 hours before they come into sync, and then we can start to analyse where it might be headed. That should make it close to the High starting to impact the East coast with ridging. The rain over the FNQ is going to be sucked out to sea by 90P.

Satellite | Wind


National


The monsoon trough & tropical lows will keep bringing heavy rain & storms across the tropics. Other troughs may continue to drive showers & storms over WA, the NT interior Qld & northeast NSW. A trough & low will produce showers for Tas & southern Vic.

Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp


State

The monsoon trough stretches across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, Cape York Peninsula, and the Coral Sea, lasting for several days. A weak tropical low is present on the trough in the western Coral Sea and is expected to move east soon. There is a possibility that this system may develop into a tropical cyclone from early next week, although its future path is uncertain. There is also a trough across southwestern Queensland that will move eastwards across southern Queensland on Thursday and Friday, causing unsettled conditions. Over the weekend, the trough will weaken as a ridge redevelops over southern Queensland.

ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall


4-day

  • Thursday: Widespread showers, some heavy, in the Far North and northwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the state. Possible severe thunderstorms in the southern interior with heavy rain and strong winds. Moderate northeast to southeasterly winds, with squally northwesterly winds north of Cairns.

  • Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in various regions. Severe thunderstorms possible in Far North, northwest, and central interior. Temperatures below average in western Queensland and Far North, above average elsewhere.

  • Saturday: On Saturday, expect showers, thunderstorms, and rain in the Far North and northwest, with scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. The Darling Downs and parts of Queensland may experience severe thunderstorms. Maximum temperatures will be below average in the northwest and near average elsewhere.

  • Sunday: Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms in northwest, Far North. Isolated showers in east, south of Bowen. Isolated showers, thunderstorms in interior. NW temps below average, others above.


North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:

Max temperature: around 30; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: N/A; Rainfall: high chance of showers, possibly severe; Other: Cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.

Herbert and Lower Burdekin:

Max temperature: 30 to 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Thunderstorm likely, Partly cloudy.

Central Coast and Whitsundays:

The weather will be partly cloudy, with a max temperature in the low to mid 30s, a min temperature in the low to mid 20s, light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, a medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, and the chance of a thunderstorm.

Peninsula:

Max temperature: low 30s; Min temperature: mid 20s; Wind speed: light becoming northwesterly 15-25 km/h; Wind direction: northwesterly; Rainfall: cloudy with very high chance of showers and thunderstorm, heavy falls possible north of Coen.

Gulf Country:

Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, Cloudy. Other: Chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe. Heavy falls possible near the east coast.

Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:

Max temperature: 30 to 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light then 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Possible severe thunderstorm.

Capricornia:

Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: northeasterly; Rainfall: medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening; Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe in the south.

Central Highlands and Coalfields:

Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, chance of thunderstorm from late morning, possibly severe in the south.

Central West:

Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to high 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h becoming light, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy, medium chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and evening, Chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe in the south.

North West:

The maximum temperature will be 32 to 37 with northeasterly winds at 15 to 25 km/h, a high chance of showers and thunderstorms, and overnight temperatures falling to the mid 20s.

Channel Country:

Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, Thunderstorm: possible and severe in the east.

Maranoa and Warrego:

Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly, rainfall: chance of showers, other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.

Darling Downs and Granite Belt:

Max temperature: 32 to 37. Min temperature: low to mid 20s. Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h. Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly. Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers.

Wide Bay and Burnett:

Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: not specified; Rainfall: high chance of showers; Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.

Southeast Coast:

Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: north to northeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, Other: partly cloudy with chance of severe thunderstorm.


WEATHER WARNINGS

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of North West Slopes and Plains and Northern Tablelands.

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds, Hail & Heavy Rain) Goldfields, S Coastal, G Southern, Central Wheat Belt & SE Coastal districts.

  • Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for North Tropical Coast & Tablelands, Northern Goldfields & Upper Flinders & Peninsula.

  • Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast East, Pilbara Coast West & North Kimberley, Leeuwin, Albany and Esperance coasts.

  • Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin.

  • Strong Wind Warning for Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans and Eden coasts.

  • Strong Wind Warning for South East Gulf of Carpentaria and North East Gulf of Carpentaria.

  • Strong Wind Warning for West, Central, Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts.

  • Strong Wind Warning for Banks Strait & Franklin Sound & Far North West & Central North coasts.

  • Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rain & Damaging Winds) Daly, Tiwi, Gregory & Arnhem, Carpentaria, Barkly & Tanami districts.

  • Tropical Cyclone Advice For Cocos Island And Christmas Island.

  • Ocean Wind Warning For Tropical Cyclone.

  • Strong Wind Warning for Van Diemen Gulf, Darwin Harbour & Beagle Bonaparte, North Tiwi, Arafura, Gove Peninsula and Roper Groote coasts.

  • Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf & Lower South East Coast.

  • Final Flood Warning For The Bellinger Rivers.

  • Cancellation Of Severe Weather Warning for East Gippsland, North East and West and South Gippsland.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Murray River.

  • Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.

  • Moderate Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).

  • Moderate Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River And Cooper Creek.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Herbert River.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw).

  • Flood Warning For The Victoria River.

  • Flood Watch For The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The Gulf Of Carpentaria.

  • Flood Watch For The North Western And Parts Of Central Nt.

  • Flood Warning For The Loddon River.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Orara River.

  • Final Flood Warning For The Adelaide River.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Warrill Creek Catchment.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Goulburn River.

  • Minor Flood Warning For The Tully And Murray Rivers.

  • Moderate Flood Warning For The Daly River.

  • Final Flood Warning For The Tweed River.

  • Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Ashburton Coast.

  • Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and Ashburton Coast.

  • Final Flood Warning For The Bogan River.

Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger


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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)

State maps by Windy (Windy.com)

Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)

Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )


Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.


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