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Monsoon update
The weather system, INVEST 90P, was previously near 15.2S 152.4E and has now moved to approximately 14.5S 154.8E, about 1015 kilometers east-northeast of Cairns, Australia. Animated satellite images show a fully exposed low-level circulation center with intense thunderstorms in the northern part. The current environment is not very favorable for development, with weak upper-level outflow, moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knots), and dry air. Global models predict that 90P will move northeast over the next 48 hours while gradually strengthening. It currently has sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and a minimum sea level pressure around 998 hPa. The likelihood of it becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is considered low. JTWC are basically still not interested in it much.
Four days from now this is how things look, while the models looks a little closer, still a lot of difference. The EC has the High moving faster East than GFS and GFS have it moving faster East than ACCESS.
Satellite | Wind
National
The monsoon trough and lows will bring heavy rain and storms across the northern tropics.
Deep troughs may drive showers and storms over northwest WA, the NT's interior, Qld, and northeast NSW. Heat will build in the interior and west.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Monsoon trough continues in Gulf of Carpentaria, Cape York Peninsula, and Coral Sea, with a weak tropical low on the trough in Coral Sea moving east. Uncertainty about its development into a cyclone next week. Trough moving slowly east across Queensland causing unsettled conditions, but will weaken as ridge forms over southern Queensland by the weekend.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Friday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the state with heavy rain and damaging wind possible. Moderate winds from the northeast to southeast, with stronger winds in the north and along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast.
Saturday: Saturday: Showers, thunderstorms, and rain in the Far North and northwest. Showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Severe thunderstorms possible in some areas. Temperatures below average in the northwest, near average elsewhere with humid conditions in South East Queensland.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in northwest and Far North. Isolated showers in eastern districts south of Townsville. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the interior. Below average max temperatures in the northwest, above average elsewhere with humid conditions in South East Queensland.
Monday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northwest and Far North. Isolated showers for eastern districts south of Ingham with chance of thunderstorm in the southeast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in far western Queensland, partly cloudy in the southern interior. Below average temperatures in the northwest, above average elsewhere with humid conditions in southeast Queensland.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Maximum temperature: 30, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: Cloudy with very high chance of rain, Other: Chance of severe thunderstorm and light winds.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Cloudy with high chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Chance of severe thunderstorm in far northwest.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: east to northeasterly; Rainfall: Slight chance of a shower, most likely in the late morning and afternoon; Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm inland.
Peninsula:
Maximum temperature: Low 30s; Minimum temperature: mid 20s; Wind speed: Light winds becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h; Wind direction: North to northwesterly; Rainfall: Cloudy with showers, chance of thunderstorm; Other: Light winds becoming light in the evening.
Gulf Country:
Max temp: low 30s, Min temp: mid 20s, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h NE, Rainfall: showers, Cloudy, Thunderstorm chance
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of rain, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, Other: Cloudy with a chance of a severe thunderstorm in the northeast, Winds becoming light before dawn before becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northeasterly 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in southwest, slight chance elsewhere, Chance of a thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to high 30s, minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: n/a, rainfall: high chance of showers in the south, medium chance elsewhere, other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe in the south.
Central West:
The maximum temperature will be in the mid to high 30s, with a minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s, wind speed will increase to 15-25 km/h from east to northeasterly during the day, there is a high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, with a chance of severe thunderstorms in the southeast, and it will be partly cloudy with light winds overnight.
North West:
Max temperature: Low to mid 30s, min temperature: Low to mid 20s, wind speed: NE 15-20 km/h increasing to 30 km/h then turning E 15-20 km/h, rainfall: Cloudy with high chance of showers, chance of thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: Mid to high 30s, Min temperature: Low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h from the east to southeast, Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere with heavy falls near the NT border. Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of severe thunderstorms in the far northeast.
Maranoa and Warrego:
High chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere with max temperature in the low to mid 30s, wind speed southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening, and overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: low to high 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light becoming 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy with high chance of showers in the north and medium chance elsewhere, Other: chance of severe thunderstorm.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: light, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Thunderstorm: possibly severe in the southwest.
Southeast Coast:
The maximum temperature is in the low to mid 30s, minimum temperature falling to the low 20s, light winds, chance of showers and a chance of a severe thunderstorm in the southwest.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for SE Queensland, including Logan, Gold Coast, Redland City, Sun Coast, Brisbane City, Moreton Bay, and Scenic Rim Council.
Severe Storm Warning for SE Coast, North Tropical Coast, Tablelands, Northern Goldfields, Upper Flinders, NW, Central Highlands, and Coalfields, CW.
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast West, Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Esperance, and Eucla coasts.
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin and Ocean Wind Warning for Tropical Cyclone.
Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall in parts of Carpentaria, Gregory, Barkly, and Tanami districts.
Strong Wind Warning for Van Diemen Gulf, Darwin Harbour, Beagle Bonaparte, North Tiwi, Arafura, Gove Peninsula, and Roper Groote coasts.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Daly River and Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Katherine River.
Strong Wind Warning for South East Gulf of Carpentaria and North East Gulf of Carpentaria.
Gale Warning for West, Central, Central Gippsland, and East Gippsland coasts, as well as Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip, Western Port, and Gippsland Lakes.
Strong Wind Warning for Lower South East Coast.
Gale Warning for Banks Strait, Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Is, Far NW, CN, and CW coasts, along with Strong Wind Warning for Upper East and South West coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Illawarra and Eden coasts on Friday.
Flood Warning for the Diamantina River.
Heatwave Warnings for Western Australia, Northern Territory, and South Australia.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Paroo River (Qld) and Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Barcoo River and Cooper Creek, as well as Warrego River (NSW).
Flood Warning for the Victoria River and Flood Watch for the Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Flood Watch for the North Western and parts of Central NT.
Final Flood Warning for the Loddon River and Minor Flood Warning for the Tully and Murray Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for the Orara River and Final Flood Warning for the Goulburn River.
Final Flood Warning for the Warrill Creek Catchment.
Minor Flood Warning for the Daintree River and Moderate Flood Warning for the Herbert River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Murray River and Paroo River (NSW).
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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