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Monsoon update
A weather disturbance, known as INVEST 90P, was previously located near 14.4S 156.1E but has now moved to approximately 692 kilometers east-northeast of Willis Island. Satellite images show developing spiral bands wrapping around a well-defined center. The upper-level conditions are somewhat favorable, with weak air movement aloft and warm sea temperatures, but there's also strong vertical wind shear. Global models predict that 90P will keep moving southwest and strengthen in the next 24-36 hours. The maximum sustained winds are around 27 to 33 knots, and the minimum pressure is about 996 hPa. There is a high chance that it may develop into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
It is important to worry less about each minute movement of the tropical low over the next week, and focus on what you would do assuming you are in the warning zone. If you have been impacted by Jasper and the floods, then don't wait for the rain to start, follow your evacuation plan once it's several days out.
You can see a big variation, but again the closer we look at this the more variation we will see as it gets closer, not because there is, its because our tolerance for difference will reduce.
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
The monsoon trough and low-pressure systems will persist, causing heavy rain and storms in the northern tropics. Other troughs are likely to trigger showers and storms over inland Western Australia, central Northern Territory, and western Queensland, with increasing heat in the interior. A front is expected to bring cooling showers to Tasmania.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
The monsoon trough will persist for days and may develop into a tropical cyclone, moving towards the Queensland coast. There is uncertainty about its exact path, but it is likely to impact Queensland. Meanwhile, a trough in southeastern Queensland will weaken and drift westward.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in Far North Queensland and the northwest, with some rain. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the southwest. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong winds possible in central and southern areas, as well as Far North Queensland and the northwest. Heavy rainfall possible in southeastern Queensland. Northeast to southeasterly winds, gusty northwesterly winds in the north and Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Humid in southeastern Queensland.
Monday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the north and northwest, becoming more isolated south of Port Douglas. Widespread rain over the Peninsula district. Isolated showers for eastern districts south of Ingham with a chance of thunderstorms in the southeast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in far western Queensland and partly cloudy in the southern interior. Chance of isolated severe thunderstorm activity in the southeast. Maximum temperatures below average in the northwest, above average elsewhere with even higher temperatures in the south. Heatwave conditions developing in central districts and continuing in the south and east, with humid conditions in southeast Queensland.
Tuesday: Today's weather: Showers and thunderstorms in the north, widespread rain in the northern Peninsula. Showers in the east, scattered on the southeast coast. Showers and thunderstorms in western Queensland. Southeasterly winds along the east coast. Temperatures varying by region, with heatwave conditions in the south, central, and east. Less humidity in the southeast.
Wednesday: Possible showers and thunderstorms in the north and northwest. Isolated showers in the east and along the coast. Mostly sunny in the central and south interior. Rough ocean conditions may reach coastal areas in Capricornia. Temperatures near or above average, with some areas experiencing a heatwave. Weather dependent on tropical low or cyclone development.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 30, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: not specified, rainfall: very high chance with most likely in the late morning and afternoon, other: cloudy with a chance of severe thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
The weather today will have a max temperature of 31 to 37, a min temperature in the low to mid 20s, with light winds becoming easterly, a chance of showers in the north and a slight chance elsewhere, and the possibility of a thunderstorm.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: southeasterly to easterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Partly cloudy, Chance of a thunderstorm, Light winds becoming southeasterly in the morning.
Peninsula:
Maximum temperature: low 30s, Minimum temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: Light winds becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the late afternoon, Wind direction: Northwesterly, Rainfall: Cloudy with very high chance of rain, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, Chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: low 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers with a chance of thunderstorm, Cloud: Cloudy.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of showers in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe, Overnight temperature falling to low to mid 20s, Daytime temperature reaching 30 to 37.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature: low to mid 30s, minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h, wind direction: easterly, rainfall: slight chance of a shower, other: partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: Light becoming easterly 15-20 km/h, Wind direction: East, Rainfall: Slight chance of showers in the east, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Central West:
Max temperature: 40 | Min temperature: low to mid 20s | Wind speed: 15-20 km/h | Wind direction: east to northeasterly | Rainfall: slight chance of a shower | Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm in late morning.
North West:
Max temperature: 38, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: Northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers, Thunderstorm possible.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: 30, Wind speed: 15-20 km/h (north to northeasterly), Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly in the middle of the day then tending north to northeasterly in the late evening, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the afternoon and evening, Other: Sunny morning, chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 35 to 41, Min temperature: 22 to 27, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: NA, Rainfall: Slight chance of shower, Other: Sunny morning, chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower and thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. Max temperature will range from 33 to 38 degrees. Winds will start light and become north to northeasterly at 15 to 20 km/h in the morning before becoming light again. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 20s.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: easterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: slight chance of shower in the north, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorm inland in the afternoon and evening.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the south, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for various coastal areas on Sunday.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for Gulf Country, Northern Goldfields & Upper Flinders, North West & Central West.
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Cloncurry River.
Major Flood Warning for the Herbert River.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Kimberley district.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall) for Gregory and parts of Carpentaria, Barkly, and Tanami districts.
Fire Weather Warning for Ashburton Coast and Exmouth Gulf Coast.
Other Alerts:
Flood warnings for Victoria River, Bremer River, Warrill Creek, Logan River, and Katherine River.
Heatwave warnings for Western Australia, Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia, and New South Wales.
Final Flood Warning for the Logan River.
Flood Watch for East and West Kimberley, Fitzroy Rivers, Sturt Creek District, North Western, and parts of Central Northern Territory.
Moderate Flood Warning for Daly River.
Fire Weather Warning for Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Mid North, Murraylands, and Upper South East.
Minor Flood Warnings for the Murray River, Paroo River (NSW), Warrego River (NSW), and Daintree River.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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