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Monsoon update
The weather system known as INVEST 90P, previously located around 468 kilometers northeast of Willis Island near 15.2S 154.2E, is consolidating. Satellite images show a gathering low-pressure center with forming bands on the outskirts. Conditions are somewhat favorable for development, with good upper-level outflow, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate vertical wind shear. Global models predict that INVEST 90P will continue moving southwestward and intensify over the next 24-36 hours. Estimated surface winds are between 28 to 33 knots, and the minimum sea level pressure is around 999 hPa. There is a high potential for it to become a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
ACCESS has the tropical system approaching faster than the other two models, but only by about half a day. GFS appears more compact and more intense than ACCESS. Again the area to be prepared includes Cairns to Mackay. Regions either side of that could see significant rain as well.
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
The monsoon trough and low-pressure systems will bring heavy rain and storms to the northern tropics. Other troughs may cause showers and storms in the northern interior regions. Onshore winds are likely to produce showers for eastern parts of Tasmania, Victoria, and New South Wales. A tropical cyclone is expected to develop over the Coral Sea.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Weak trough over SW QLD & NSW. Coastal portion moves north Mon, up to Capricornia Tues. Monsoon trough extends across Gulf Country & Coral Sea but may contract northwards midweek. Tropical low (05U) on monsoon trough in northern Coral Sea has potential to become cyclone, likely to approach QLD coast midweek between Cairns & Mackay. Could later weaken to tropical low and move south over land.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Monday: Showers and storms in far north and northwest. Severe storms possible. Showers and storms inland in eastern districts. Interior storms. Winds mostly southeast to northeasterly. Heatwave in southern and eastern Queensland, humid in southeast.
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the far north and northwest, becoming widespread over the northern Peninsula. Isolated showers for eastern districts south of Ingham, becoming scattered near the Southeast and Wide Bay coasts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in far western Queensland, partly cloudy in the southern interior. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds developing along the central east coast south of Ingham. Temps near or below average in the southeast and Peninsula, above average elsewhere and well above average in central, southwest, and southern interior parts. Heatwave conditions in southern, southwest, central, and eastern districts, some severe, with less humid conditions in the South East.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and isolated storms in the far north and northwest. Isolated showers for eastern districts, with more scattered along the east coast. Mostly sunny in the central and southern interior. Strong winds and rough seas developing in coastal areas of central to northern Queensland. Above average temperatures in central west to southwest districts. Heatwave conditions in much of central and southern Queensland, excluding the southeast.
Thursday: Thursday: Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms in central, far north and northwest Queensland, likely widespread in central eastern and northeastern districts. Heavy rain possible in central to northeastern Queensland with uncertain timing and extent. Strong winds, rough seas, and swell on coastal waters and islands. High temperatures in southwestern districts. Heatwave conditions in parts of the west and interior.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temp: Low to mid 30s, Min temp: Low to mid 20s, Wind: Light, Rainfall: Showers likely in the north, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 39, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of shower, Thunderstorm: in the north in morning and afternoon, Mostly sunny
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 38, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower along coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: mostly sunny.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: Light winds westerly becoming variable south of Cooktown, Wind direction: Variable south of Cooktown, Rainfall: Very high chance of rain, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, Other: Cloudy with a chance of a severe thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
The weather will be cloudy with a high chance of rain, possibly in the morning and afternoon, and a chance of a thunderstorm; light winds can be expected with maximum temperatures in the low to mid-30s and overnight temperatures falling to the mid-20s.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Maximum temperature: 34 to 39, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm, Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the evening.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind: light, becoming east to southeasterly 15-20 km/h then tending east to northeasterly in the late afternoon; Rainfall: Sunny; Other: Overnight temperatures falling, daytime temperatures reaching mid to high 30s.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm in the south in the afternoon and evening.
Central West:
The summary for the weather conditions is: Max temp of 40°C, min temp in the 20s, light winds becoming easterly 15-25 km/h, slight chance of a shower, and chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
North West:
Max temperature: 34 to 41; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h; Rainfall: chance of showers in the northwest, slight chance elsewhere; Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: low to mid 40s, Min temperature: around 30, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h becoming 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: NW to NE becoming NE to SE, Rainfall: Slight chance of shower here, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Mostly sunny, chance of thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 40, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly, Chance of shower: slight in northeast, near zero elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm: in the afternoon and evening, Light winds becoming northwest to southwesterly in the morning.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temp: 38 to 43, Min temp: 21 to 26, Wind speed: 15 to 30km/h, Wind direction: Southeast to southwesterly to northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: Mostly sunny, slight chance of shower in far east afternoon and evening, near zero chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming 15 to 20 km/h NE to SE in the afternoon and light in the evening, Rainfall: None, Weather: Mostly sunny.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 34 to 39, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming NE to SE 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: south easterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers in late afternoon/evening, Other: sunny morning, chance of severe thunderstorm in afternoon/evening.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall in parts of Kimberley and North Interior districts.
Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast West & North Kimberley, Ningaloo, Gascoyne, Esperance, and Eucla coasts.
Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall in parts of Gregory and Tanami districts.
Fire Weather Warning for Ashburton Coast and Exmouth Gulf Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Beagle Bonaparte and Arafura coasts. Cancellation for Van Diemen Gulf & Gove Peninsula Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Port Phillip, Gippsland Lakes & Central, Central Gippsland, and East Gippsland coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent.
Major Flood Warning for The Herbert River.
Flood Warning for The Victoria River.
Strong Wind Warning Banks Strait & Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Is, Storm Bay & Far North West, CN, Upper East & Lower East coasts.
Gale Warning for Sydney, Illawarra, and Eden coasts. Strong Wind Warning for Sydney Enclosed Waters & Batemans Coast.
Flood Watch for East Kimberley, Fitzroy River, Sandy Desert, De Grey River, and Sturt Creek District.
Flood Watch for The North Western And Parts Of Central NT.
Moderate Flood Warning for The Daly River.
Final Flood Warning for The Bremer River And Warrill Creek.
Flood Watch for The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The Gulf Country.
Minor Flood Warning for The Tully River And Final Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Initial Flood Warning for The Ord River.
Final Flood Warning for The Daintree And Mossman Rivers.
Minor Flood Warning for The Cloncurry River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Western River And Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Murray River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Paroo River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning for The Warrego River (Nsw).
Moderate Flood Warning for The Paroo River (Qld).
Moderate Flood Warning for The Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning for The Barcoo River And Cooper Creek.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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