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Monsoon update
As of January 23, 2024, the tropical cyclone named 07P (Seven) is positioned near 17.2S 153.4E. It is approximately 829 kilometers east of Cairns, Australia, and has been moving south-southwestward at a speed of 11.1 kilometers per hour in the last six hours. The minimum central pressure observed at 230600Z is 993 hPa, with a maximum significant wave height recorded at the same time being 4.57 meters.
Not a huge amount of cloud produced today but we should see it build tonight as the humidity climbs and that is thrown up high and condenses into cloud. It is tracking SW as much as a low will. Expect a cyclone to be called within 6 to 12 hours.
The rain amounts shown to be maxed around the Western side, but predominantly the rain is on the NW quadrant. That means the heavy rain NW of the cyclone eye if it forms, and the wind is a little interesting. Two of the models show the strongest wind gusts to the North, and one to the South. That means there is a high chance the wind and rain will be strongest to the North.
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
A tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea is expected to approach the QLD coast. The monsoon trough and low will bring continued rain and storms across the northern tropics. Troughs extending across the country will result in showers and storms for WA and SA. Intense heat is expected to persist through the interior.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Weak troughs over southwestern Queensland and New South Wales will strengthen later this week. A trough extends across northern Cape York Peninsula and the Coral Sea, persisting for the next few days. Slow-moving tropical low (05U) in the central Coral Sea is expected to become a cyclone and move southwestward toward the east Queensland coast. Likely to cross the coast between Cardwell and Airlie Beach on Thursday, it will then move inland and further south, posing a risk of widespread rain, flooding, and significant impacts on central, southern, and southeastern Queensland from Friday to the weekend.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Wednesday: Scattered showers & storms in far north & northwest, becoming widespread in far north Peninsula. Isolated showers for eastern districts, scattered near Sunshine & Wide Bay coasts. Isolated showers & storms in far west Queensland, partly cloudy in southeast & mostly clear elsewhere. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds along central east coast from Ingham to Gladstone.
Thursday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in central and northern Queensland, later becoming widespread in central eastern and northeastern districts. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in central east and northeastern Queensland, although the exact areas affected are uncertain. Strong winds, rough seas, and destructive gusts along the coast between Cardwell and Proserpine. Conditions depend on the tropical low or cyclone (05U). High temperatures in southwestern districts. Heatwave conditions in parts of the west and interior.
Friday: Scattered to widespread showers and rain with thunderstorms in northern, central, and eastern parts of Queensland. Heavy rainfall possible in central to northeastern areas. Rough seas and winds in southern coastal waters. Very windy conditions in central to northeastern interior, easing later. Fresh to strong gusty winds in coastal areas south of Cooktown. Temperatures near or above average, except for central to northern interior districts. Heatwave conditions in the west and possibly in the tropical northeast coast.
Dependent on the movement and development of tropical low or cyclone (05U).
Saturday: Showers, storms in QLD. Heavy rain may cause floods. Windy in some coastal areas. Temps near average. Heatwave easing in southwest, but may continue on northeast coast.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 36, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: East to southeasterly, Rainfall: None, Other: Mostly sunny with a chance of thunderstorm in the north.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
The maximum temperature will be 34 to 39, with a minimum temperature in the low to mid 20s. The wind speed will start at 15-25 km/h, then increase to 35-55 km/h in the late evening, changing from southeasterly to south/southeasterly direction. There will be mostly sunny weather, and no information about rainfall was provided.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temp: 32-38, Min temp: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: SE 30-45 km/h increasing to 45-60 km/h near coast, Rainfall: high chance of showers along coastal fringe, slight chance elsewhere, Clouds: Partly cloudy
Peninsula:
The forecast includes max temperature, min temperature, wind speed, wind direction, rainfall and the weather description with details about shower chances, thunderstorm, wind change, and overnight/ daytime temperatures.
Gulf Country:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a high of 35-40°C, a low in the mid to high 20s, light winds, a slight chance of a shower, and a possibility of a severe thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 36 to 42, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day, Wind direction: northeasterly to east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Mostly sunny with chance of a thunderstorm in the north.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: 37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower near the coast, near zero chance elsewhere, Sky condition: Partly cloudy, Overnight temperatures falling.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
The weather will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the northeast, winds changing from east to northeasterly to east to southeasterly, with temperatures dropping to the low to mid 20s overnight and rising to the mid to high 30s during the day.
Central West:
Max temperature: 39 to 45, Min temperature: 24 to 29, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Sunny.
North West:
Max temperature: low to mid 40s, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Not specified, Rainfall: Near zero chance of rain, Weather: Mostly sunny with slight chance of shower in southwest, chance of thunderstorm in afternoon and evening.
Channel Country:
Maximum temperature: mid to high 40s; Minimum temperature: 27 to 33; Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h becoming 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: east to southeasterly becoming east to northeasterly then east to southeasterly; Rainfall: chance of a thunderstorm in the northwest in afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 44, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind: northeast to southeasterly turning easterly, Speed: 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, then 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning, Rainfall: Sunny.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 39, Min temperature: 18, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: 19, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly to southeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of showers along the coastal fringe, near zero chance elsewhere, Sky condition: Partly cloudy, Overnight temperature: 19-24.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 18-23°C, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: Southeasterly to easterly, Rainfall: N/A, Other: Partly cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for Townsville, Mackay, and Capricornia coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Wednesday for Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra, Batemans, and Eden coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for Far North West Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Central and East Gippsland coasts.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Pilbara, Gascoyne, North Interior, and South Interior districts.
Gale Warning for Ningaloo Coast. Strong Wind Warning for Pilbara Coast West, Gascoyne, and Geraldton coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Ashburton Coast and Exmouth Gulf Coast.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Final Flood Warning For The Ord River.
Flood Watch For Fitzroy River, Sandy Desert, De Grey River, Pilbara Coast Rivers, Fortescue River, And Ashburton River.
Flood Watch For The North Western And Parts Of Central Nt.
Initial Minor Flood Warning For The Moonie River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Barcoo River And Cooper Creek.
Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Flood Watch For Coastal And Adjacent Inland Catchments Between Tully And St Lawrence, And The Upper Flinders Catchment.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Daly River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Fitzroy River.
Flood Watch For The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The Gulf Country.
Minor Flood Warning For The Herbert River.
Flood Warning For The Victoria River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Minor Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw).
Final Flood Warning For The Cloncurry River.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
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Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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