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Monsoon update
Ex TC Kirrily is keeping everyone guessing but the best approach is to look 4 days out, and we see even that had divided the models below. Will it go South, North or back East? We don't know. What we do know is that this region is the most active for the monsoon around the entire equator. So there are good chances of monsoonal events popping up and then maturing in the following week around the Coral Sea.
Then it moves on towards Fiji. However, we can also see events around Fiji impact QLD. So many possibilities. Watch and see.
If you want to follow in depth get hold of a Big Shout and check out the Long Range forecast which is updated when major events are identified and regular metrological markers are identified.
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
Troughs and lows bringing rain, showers, and storms to:
Parts of WA's north.
The NT.
QLD.
NSW's northeast.
Onshore flow leading to a few showers in:
NSW's east.
Southeast WA.
High-pressure ridges keeping the southwest of WA and the southeast mostly dry and settled.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will bring heavy rain and flooding to western Queensland. A trough will move across southern Queensland this weekend, causing showers and storms. The trough will then move northwards into central and northern Queensland.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Sunday: Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms across much of state. Widespread rain in western Queensland. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding possible in northwestern parts due to ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall possible in northern, central, southern interior and southeast. Partly cloudy in far southwest. Light to moderate winds, gusty in coastal areas. Moderate winds in far southwest. Humid conditions in eastern Queensland.
Monday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of the state, becoming widespread in certain areas. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible in the west, near ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely in the southwest, south interior, and southeast districts. High temperatures in the southeast, with near or above average temps on the east coast and southwest. Cooler temps in the northwest and below average elsewhere in the interior. Decreasing heatwave conditions, but humid conditions persist in eastern Queensland.
Tuesday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of the state, with more widespread activity in parts of the central and southern interior as well as in South East Queensland. Heavy rain and possible flash flooding in western areas near ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Chance of heavy rain near the South East coast depending on a coastal trough. Possible severe thunderstorms with heavy rain in southern and central Queensland south of Rockhampton to Winton. Above average temperatures in the tropical east coast and far west, below average in the central and southeastern interior, and near or slightly below average elsewhere. Noticeably humid conditions persisting across eastern Queensland.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in most of the state, becoming widespread in central and South East Queensland. Showers and thunderstorms widespread in parts of north and central Queensland. Possible severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in central Queensland. Heavy rainfall possible in western Queensland and parts of the central and northern interior, depending on the movements of ex Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Maximum temperatures above average along the tropical east coast and far west, well below average in the central and southeastern interior and near or slightly below average elsewhere. South East Queensland becoming less humid.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h NW; Rainfall: medium chance of showers; Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, falling temperatures.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to high 20s; Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h; Wind direction: north to northwesterly, then north to northeasterly; Rainfall: medium chance of showers, most likely from late morning; Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe inland, winds becoming light in the late evening.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: northerly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon, Other: partly cloudy with a chance of a severe thunderstorm inland.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: mid 20s, wind speed: northwest 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening, rainfall: high chance of showers most likely in the late morning and afternoon, other: partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
The weather forecast includes a high temperature range of 31 to 37, a low temperature range in the mid to high 20s, wind speeds ranging from 15 to 25 km/h, wind direction changing from north to northwesterly to west to northwesterly, a chance of thunderstorms, possible heavy rainfall in the southeast, and partly cloudy skies with high chance of showers in the east and medium chance elsewhere.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: north to northwesterly, Rainfall: heavy falls possible in the west, Cloudy with very high chance of showers, high chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind: north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h, Rainfall: High chance of showers, possibly thunderstorm, Wind direction: mainly northeasterly, Other: Partly cloudy.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: low to mid 20s; Wind speed: light, becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day, then light in the evening; Wind direction: north to northeasterly; Rainfall: High chance of showers; Other: Partly cloudy, chance of a severe thunderstorm; Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening; Overnight temperatures falling to the low to mid 20s with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid 30s.
Central West:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: northwest to northeasterly, Rainfall: Cloudy with very high chance of rain and chance of severe thunderstorm, Heavy falls possible in northwest.
North West:
Max temperature: 39, Min temperature: low to high 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 35 km/h, Wind direction: southeast to southwesterly, Rainfall: high chance of rain east of Mt Isa, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible east of Mt Isa.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 41, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 25 to 40 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly, Rainfall: High chance of rain in the northeast, slight chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, Chance of thunderstorm, Winds possibly severe, Overnight temperatures falling.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Maximum temperature: 40, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h to 20 to 30 km/h to 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: southeast to southwesterly to south to southeasterly to east to northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of rain in the north, medium chance elsewhere, Other: partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 34, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: Cloudy. High chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe, with possible heavy falls in the east, Other: Light winds.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: mid 20s; Wind speed: northerly 15 to 20 km/h turning northeasterly; Wind direction: north to northeast; Rainfall: high chance of showers, possibly heavy falls in the south; Other: cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: unspecified, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, Cloudy with chance of severe thunderstorm and heavy falls inland.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Flood Warnings:
Minor Flood Warning for The Lower Barcoo River And Cooper Creek.
Major Flood Warning For The Herbert River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Flinders River And Minor Flood Warning For The Cloncurry River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Western River And Flood Warning For The Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Fitzroy River.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld).
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Final Flood Warning For The Bulloo River.
Final Flood Warning For The Warrego River (Nsw).
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Arnhem, Daly, and Carpentaria districts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Central Highlands and Coalfields.
Cancellation Of Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, and Northern Tablelands.
Strong Wind Warnings:
Strong Wind Warning for Van Diemen Gulf, Darwin Harbour & Beagle Bonaparte, North Tiwi, Arafura, Gove Peninsula, and Roper Groote coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for South East Gulf of Carpentaria, North East Gulf of Carpentaria & Peninsula, Cooktown coasts.
Strong Wind Warning for West, Central, Central Gippsland, and East Gippsland coasts.
Gale Warning Banks St & Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Is, South West Lakes & CN, Lower East, South East, South West & Central West coasts.
Cancellation of Wind Warning for North Kimberley Coast.
Cancellation of Wind Warning for Byron and Coffs coasts.
Cancellation of Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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