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Monsoon update
Ex TC Kirrily keeps us guessing even more as the forecasts can't even align over 2 days now. However, it does appear the convergence will develop around Bundy tomorrow arvo and a possible East Coast Low may form off the QLD coast after that. This convergence should travel North along the coast, how fast not sure but it may pull Ext TC Kirrily back towards the coast or it could just keep it there.
The monsoon peak for our region was identified in August 2023, and that's in the PDF archive which you can access as a thank you to Big Shout supporters in the Long Range forecast .
ACCESS | GFS | EC
National
A trough over Queensland and northeast New South Wales will move southward, bringing high humidity, showers, and storms. Easterly winds will strengthen and bring heat to southwest Western Australia. A trough across the north will generate showers and storms, while cool southerly-component winds will prevail in the southeast.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will slowly move across western Queensland, bringing heavy rain and floods. Another trough will remain over southern and southeastern Queensland, causing unsettled conditions. These systems will bring tropical moisture across the state. There may be a coastal trough or low developing near southeast Queensland, increasing rainfall. Later in the week, a ridge will push the trough northwards.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Tuesday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the state, becoming widespread in parts of northwest, central, and southern Queensland south of Rockhampton. Showers becoming widespread in South East Queensland with rain areas developing overnight. Heavy rainfall, possibly causing flash flooding, likely over northwestern parts near ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely over southern and central interior west of Goondiwindi and south of Blackall, and possible in central, southern, and southeastern districts south of Moranbah. Light to moderate northwest to northeasterly winds, easterly winds in southeast Queensland, and moderate south to southeasterly winds in the far southwest. Winds occasionally fresh in the Peninsula district.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of the state, potentially severe in certain areas. Heavy rainfall possible in northwestern Queensland due to ex Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Coastal areas may experience heavy falls depending on a coastal trough or low. Strong southeasterly winds will develop along the southeast coast. Temperatures will be above average along the east coast and far west, and near or below average elsewhere. The northeast tropical coast will experience heatwave conditions, while South East Queensland will become less humid.
Thursday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across most of the state, becoming more scattered on the east coast south of Rockhampton. Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread in parts of northern and central Queensland north of Mackay. Heavy falls possible in northwestern Queensland depending on ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in parts of inland northern Queensland south of Palmerville. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds on the east coast south of Mackay. Temperatures below average in the northwest, northern and central interior, above average in the far southwest and near or slightly above average elsewhere. Heatwave conditions easing along the northeast tropical coast.
Friday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of Mackay to Mount Isa, becoming widespread at times in northern interior and northeast tropical coast. Isolated showers in central districts and east coast south of Mackay, partly cloudy in South East and inland southern Queensland. Heavy falls possible in northwestern Queensland affected by ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. Moderate to heavy falls possible with showers and thunderstorms in northern Queensland. Max temperatures below average in northwest, northern, and central interior, above average in southern and southeast Queensland, near average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Max temperature: 30-35, Min temperature: low-mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: west-northwest, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Thunderstorm likely.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: low to high 30s, Min temperature: low to high 20s, Wind: light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon, Rain: high chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, Thunderstorm: possible, Overnight temperatures: falling to low to high 20s.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, minimum temperature: mid to high 20s, wind speed: light, wind direction: north to northeasterly, rainfall: high chance of showers, thunderstorm possible, partly cloudy.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s; Min temperature: mid 20s; Wind speed: light winds becoming NW 15-25km/h in the morning then light in the evening; Wind direction: northwesterly; Rainfall: high chance of showers, most likely in late morning and afternoon; Other: partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 33 to 38, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: northerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light before dawn then becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northerly becoming north to northwesterly, Rainfall: partly cloudy, medium chance of showers in the east, slight chance elsewhere, Other: chance of a thunderstorm.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Maximum temperature: 37, Minimum temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming north to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening, Wind direction: northwest, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, most likely from the late morning, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low 30s; Min temperature: mid to high 20s; Wind speed: light; Wind direction: N/A; Rainfall: very high chance of showers; Cloudy with a chance of severe thunderstorms.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: 29 to 35, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: N/A, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers, Thunderstorm possibility: possibly severe.
Central West:
Max temperature: 31 to 37, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: northwest to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers, Chance of severe thunderstorm with heavy rain, Winds becoming light in late evening.
North West:
Max temperature: 41, Min temperature: 22, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: northeast to southeasterly, Rainfall: high chance of showers, Other: partly cloudy, chance of severe thunderstorm with heavy rain, flash flooding.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 34 to 44, Min temperature: mid to high 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 40 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy, Medium chance of showers in the northeast, slight chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm, possibly severe with heavy rain in the north, Chance of raised dust near South Australian border in afternoon and evening.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 30 to 38, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with high chance of showers in the east, medium chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm, Winds east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Max temperature: 30, min temperature: low to mid 20s, wind speed: light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h, wind direction: easterly, rainfall: high chance of rain, most likely in the morning and afternoon, other: cloudy with chance of thunderstorm and possible flash flooding in the south.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: unspecified, Rainfall: very high chance of rain, Other: cloudy, chance of thunderstorm, heavy falls possible inland.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: mid to high 20s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the morning, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of rain, possibly heavy which may lead to flash flooding, Other: cloudy, chance of thunderstorm possibly severe.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Strong Wind Warning for the Upper East Coast, with cancellations for the Lower East, South East, and South West coasts.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southeast Queensland, including intense rain in Cherbourg & Gympie, Western Downs, South Burnett & Toowoomba Council Areas.
Severe Storm Warning for Central Highlands & Coalfields, Capricornia, Wide Bay & Burnett, Maranoa & Warrego & Darling Downs, involving intense rain.
Moderate Flood Warning for Warrill Creek and minor flood warning for the Bremer River.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Mid North Coast, Hunter, Central Tablelands, Northwest Slopes & Plains, Central West Slopes/Plains & Northern Tablelands, with heavy, locally intense rain.
Strong Wind Warning for Perth Local Waters & Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth, and Bunbury Geographe coasts.
Fire Weather Warning for Swan Inland South, Brockman, Blackwood, and Southern Forests.
Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall in parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, North West, Central West, and Channel Country.
Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall in parts of Wide Bay & Burnett, Darling Downs & Granite Belt & Southeast Coast.
Storm Force Wind Warning for Western, Southeastern, and Southern Areas, with a gale warning for Western and Southern Areas.
Minor Flood Warning for the Flinders and Cloncurry Rivers.
Strong Wind Warning for Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent on Tuesday.
Minor Flood Warning for the Western River and flood warning for the Diamantina River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River in Queensland.
Minor Flood Warning for the Thomson and Barcoo Rivers and Cooper Creek.
Flood Watch for parts of Southern and Central Queensland, including Southeast Queensland.
Flood Watch for Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands, and Northwest Slopes and Plains.
Minor Flood Warning for the Paroo River in New South Wales.
Moderate Flood Warning for the Daly River.
Flood Watch for the Georgina River and Eyre Creek.
Minor Flood Warning for the Fitzroy River.
Flood Warning for the Victoria River.
Minor Flood Warning for the Logan River and flood warning for the Albert River.
Initial Minor Flood Warning for the Bulloo River.
Flood Watch for parts of Eastern and Central Inland Northern Territory.
Minor Flood Warning for the Herbert River.
Final Flood Warning for the Upper Burdekin River.
Final Flood Warning for the Warrego River in New South Wales.
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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