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Monsoon Update
Two lows on the Indian Ocean side are potential for tropical development but still a number of days off, at the end of the week the system 08U may deepen into a cyclone where 09U is likely to move into the Gulf and delay development.
The developments in the Coral Sea are still very uncertain, it could mean this weekend is mainly dry as lows begin to pull the rain towards it. The following weekend may not be so clear.
National
The monsoon and a low-pressure system will bring lots of rain and storms to the northern areas. There's a good chance of ongoing heavy rain, possibly leading to floods, in eastern WA due to plenty of tropical moisture. Eastern Queensland and northeast New South Wales can expect showers hanging around, thanks to moist easterly winds. Showers are on the horizon for Tasmania and South Australia. Meanwhile, other places are in for hot and dry weather.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Tasman Sea high weakens, monsoon trough persists with potential tropical lows later. New high brings wind surge to southeastern Queensland, extending to central Queensland later.
ACCESS (Values are rainfall over 3 hours)
4-day
Tuesday: Some showers and thunderstorms in the north, widespread rain in far northern Cape York. Showers in the east with possible storms near Bowen to Sunshine Coast. Mostly clear elsewhere. Light to moderate northeast to southeasterly winds, stronger on the east coast.
Wednesday: Patchy showers in the north, isolated storms near Kowanyama. Showers in far north Cape York. Some showers in the east, sunny elsewhere. Warmer in the southwest and southern interior, average temps elsewhere.
Thursday: Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms likely north of Georgetown, scattered showers in far northern Cape York Peninsula, isolated showers in the east, mostly sunny elsewhere. Above-average temperatures in the west and southern interior, near average elsewhere.
Friday: Friday: Showers and chance of thunderstorms north of Georgetown. Widespread showers over northern Cape York Peninsula. Isolated showers in the east. Mostly sunny, possible morning fog in southeast. Temps near average north of Georgetown, above average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Temperatures ranging from 26 to 32 degrees with southeasterly winds at 20-30 km/h, partly cloudy with showers near the coast and falling overnight temperatures.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 19-23°C, Wind: Light becoming south to southeasterly 15-25 km/h, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
Max temperature: 32°C, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind: southeasterly 25 to 35 km/h, Rainfall: Medium chance of showers, Other: Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the evening, Wind direction: east to southeasterly, Rainfall: Expect showers with varying chances, Other: Partly cloudy with very high chance of showers north of Weipa, medium chance elsewhere, chance of a thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Mostly sunny with temperatures reaching mid to high 30s, minimum in the mid 20s, wind east to southeasterly 20-30 km/h becoming light, slight chance of a shower near the coast, near zero chance elsewhere, chance of a thunderstorm near east coast in afternoon and evening.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: 19-23, Wind speed: increasing to 25-35 km/h in the morning, Wind direction: east to southeasterly becoming easterly and light in the evening, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower in the southeast, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Mostly sunny with overnight temperatures falling between 19 and 23.
Capricornia:
Maximum temperature: 33°C, Minimum temperature: 19°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: southeasterly, Rainfall: showers likely, Conditions: partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature in the low to mid 30s, min temperature between 18 and 21, wind speeds southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h turning easterly 15 to 25 km/h, with partly cloudy skies and a slight chance of a shower in the northeast, near zero chance of rain elsewhere.
Central West:
The weather will have temperatures ranging from 19 to high 30s, with easterly winds of 15 to 30 km/h and overnight falling temperatures.
North West:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: variable but becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: None expected, Other: Sunny with light winds becoming easterly in the morning.
Channel Country:
High temperatures in the high 30s during the day, with easterly winds increasing to 15-25 km/h, overnight lows in the low to mid 20s, and a sunny forecast with no rainfall expected.
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: 37°C, Min temperature: 18°C, Wind speed: Light, Wind direction: Easterly, Rainfall: None, Conditions: Sunny.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Maximum temperature: 35°C, Minimum temperature: 16°C, Wind speed: 20-30 km/h, Wind direction: East, Rainfall: None, Other: Sunny.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: 30°C, Min temperature: 17-21°C, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h southeasterly, Wind direction: southeast, Rainfall: High chance of showers, Partly cloudy with medium chance of showers elsewhere, chance of a thunderstorm in the north.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature 30°C, min temperature 17-21°C, wind speed southeasterly 20-30 km/h becoming light, wind direction southeasterly, rainfall slight chance, partly cloudy.
WEATHER WARNINGS
TAS
Strong Wind Warning for South East and South West coasts
NSW/ACT
Strong Wind Warning for Batemans and Eden coasts
Gale Warning For Western, Southern And Southeastern Areas
Gale Warning For Southern Area
WA
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall) for parts of Goldfields, Eucla, and South Interior districts
Strong Wind Warning for Geraldton, Lancelin, Bunbury Geographe, and Leeuwin coasts
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
Ocean Wind Warning For Tropical Cyclone
Flood Watch For The East Kimberly, Salt Lake And Nullarbor District Rivers, Sandy Desert And Parts Of The Pilbara Coast Rivers
Flood Warning For The Ord River
Minor Flood Warning For The Fitzroy River
Minor Flood Warning For The Eucla District
Flood Warning For The Salt Lakes District Rivers
NT
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Arafura and Gove Peninsula coasts
Moderate Flood Warning For The Upper Victoria River And Flood Warning For The Lower Victoria River
Minor Flood Warning For The Katherine River
Flood Watch For The North Western NT
QLD
Hazardous Surf Warning for Sunshine Coast Waters, Gold Coast Waters & K'gari Coast
Strong Wind Warning Hervey Bay, Sun Cst Waters, Moreton Bay, Gold Coast Waters & Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Capricornia & K'gari coasts
Minor Flood Warning For The Diamantina River
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Qld)
Moderate Flood Warning For The Tully River
Moderate Flood Warning For Eyre Creek And Minor Flood Warning For The Georgina River
Final Flood Warning For The Herbert River
Moderate Flood Warning For The Mulgrave River And Minor Flood Warning For The Russell River
Final Flood Warning For The Daintree River
Final Flood Warning For The Flinders River
SA
Strong Wind Warning for Tuesday for Spencer Gulf, Investigator Strait & Central and South Central coasts
Heatwave Warning for South Australia
Fire Weather Warning for West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Mount Lofty Ranges, Yorke Peninsula, and Lower South East
VIC
Fire Weather Warning for South West
Storms - Heatwave - Fire danger
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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