Christmas/Boxing Day Special

3 days ago
3 min read

Big picture first (the pattern)

The better tropical moisture and storm focus starts north/west (Top End/Gulf) early on.
The models then start hinting at 07U pushing south, then slipping toward the western Gulf, and later feeding moisture back toward QLD.
Late in the period (around Christmas into the weekend after), the maps favour a bigger rain band / moisture plume spreading into central/eastern QLD, with NQ coast and adjacent inland getting a better look in.

Quick disclaimer (worth reading)

These maps are model guidance, not a promise. In the tropics especially, rain totals can swing a lot depending on where storms “train” or where a low tracks by 50–150 km. Use this as a pattern guide (where the best moisture/convergence is likely), and keep an eye on BOM forecasts/warnings as we get closer.

Region-by-region, day-by-day (modelled 24-hr style totals, approx)

Day	FNQ Coast (Cooktown–Cairns–Tully)	Herbert & Burdekin (Townsville)	Gulf Country (Normanton–Burketown)	Cape York (Weipa–Bamaga)	Inland NQ / NW (Mt Isa–Georgetown)	Central Coast/CQ (Bowen–Mackay–Rocky)
Fri 19	0–5 (iso 10)	0–5 (5–10 iso)	5–25 (heavier iso)	5–15 (higher iso)	5–20 (higher iso)	0–10
Sat 20	0–5 (5–10 ranges)	0–5	5–25	5–15	5–20	0–10
Sun 21	0–5	0–5	10–30	5–20	5–25	0–10
Mon 22	0–5	0–5	10–30	5–20	5–25	0–10
Tue 23	0–10	0–10	5–20	5–15	5–20	5–15
Wed 24	0–10 (10–20 iso)	5–20	5–25	0–10	5–25	5–25
Thu 25	5–15 (20+ iso)	10–30 (higher iso)	0–15	0–10	10–30	10–30
Fri 26	10–30 (30–50 iso)	15–40 (40–70 iso)	0–15	0–10	10–40	15–50 (higher iso)
Sat 27	15–40 (higher iso)	15–40	5–25	0–15	10–30	10–35
Sun 28	5–25	10–30	0–10	0–10	5–25	5–25

About 07U (why I’m watching it)

The model trend you’ve shown is starting to favour 07U drifting south, then leaning toward the western Gulf, and later pushing moisture back toward QLD. That’s a classic setup for:

early storm/rain focus Top End / Gulf, then
a later “feed” into NQ/central QLD (rain band + embedded storms).

Confidence on exact placement is still only moderate this far out — but the direction of travel / moisture focus is becoming clearer.

A note on my longer-range outlooks (Aug–Nov)

Over the last 5 months (Aug–Nov) I’ve been sharing Long Range + Cyclone Outlook posts. I want to be clear about why: they’re a thank you to my Big Shout supporters, and they help me keep improving what I put out.

Long-range forecasting is never going to be spot on — it’s about picking the most likely windows and regions, not calling exact days. But in past years, these pattern windows have often landed within a week (sometimes only a few days) of when the main action showed up.

What those outlooks have generally leaned toward (Aug–Nov):

First cyclone window: late December into early January (often a Gulf / Cape York / NE QLD focus)
Peak risk: January–February (best window for multiple systems)
Monsoon timing: often becomes more consistent through Jan–Feb (after a patchier lead-in)

So this year probably isn’t a huge shock — it’s starting to look like a reasonably typical December–January setup overall.

On “surprises”: the first Fina was a surprise in exact timing/track — but the pulse around that period wasn’t. That’s the difference between seeing the pattern vs nailing the pinpoint.