Cyclone Season - First signals

Thought I’d get on top of this before it’s everywhere. The first wave of hype is about to arrive, so let’s take a deep breath and look at what the data actually says.

There is no cyclone forming near Australia right now, and nothing expected in the coming week. But the longer-range outlook is starting to show the first hints of possible development north of Australia later in November – mainly around the Timor Sea / eastern Indian Ocean roughly Nov 18–25.

•  This is not a cyclone forecast.

•  No landfall, no track, no threat at this stage.

•  Just early signals that conditions may turn more favourable over warm water as the season slowly switches on.

I’ve posted my November cyclone season blog today, and sure enough, this popped up in the model guidance a few hours later. So rather than wait for the click-bait headlines, here’s the calm version:

•  No system near Australia this week

•  Nothing to “watch” on the radar yet

•  Late-November is the window worth monitoring, but still low confidence

•  If anything becomes real, we’ll deal with it then – not 3 weeks early

Cyclone season is a marathon, not a sprint. We stay alert, not alarmed.

More updates once there’s something meaningful to say.