Is eddy becoming 12U?

What’s going on with the trough tonight?

You might notice the rain and storms near the coast look like they’re curling away and shifting offshore.

The coastal trough hasn’t disappeared, but it has moved position. A small spin of weather (an eddy) has broken away from the trough and is drifting out to sea, taking the heavier rain and storms with it for now.

We saw a similar setup about a week ago — a weak low peeled off the coast and moved into the Tasman Sea.

👉 It did not become a cyclone, but it did lead to rougher seas and unsettled offshore conditions.

What this means right now

- Rain and storms may ease along the coast for a time

- Choppy to rough seas remain possible offshore

- This does not mean the wet pattern is over

Once the offshore feature moves away, the trough often redevelops or shifts back, which can bring showers and storms back again later.

Looking a bit further ahead There is still a chance of a low forming later in the Coral Sea, but it’s not locked in. As flagged late last week, the Gulf of Carpentaria remains a possible development zone instead, depending on where the trough sets up and where the deepest moisture pools.

This is all normal wet-season behaviour — systems can form, weaken, shift, and redevelop rather than following one clean path.

No cyclone signals from this feature at present — just something to keep an eye on, especially for marine conditions and future rainfall.

How we can tell this from the radar

- The rain band starts to curve and hook, rather than staying in a straight line — a sign a small spin has formed.

- The heaviest rain keeps redeveloping offshore, while activity near the coast eases for a time.

- Some showers rotate around a loose centre instead of all moving in one direction.

- Fewer new storms fire right on the coast, which suggests the trough has shifted position rather than disappeared.

- The overall motion becomes out to sea, not along the coastline.

Radar doesn’t show the future, but it’s very good at showing where the weather focus is right now — and at the moment, that focus has moved offshore.

That means from further forecsst analysis for next 48 hours:

- Rain should be lighter and more hit-and-miss for a time

- River rises may slow, rather than accelerate

- Road conditions may stabilise, but closures can still remain

- This is not a full reprieve — more a pause. Flood impacts don’t clear quickly, and showers or storms can still pop up, especially near the coast.

Use the window carefully, keep checking road updates, and don’t assume everything will reopen straight away.