I posted a few Facebook articles on this and figured I would sum it up and make it available to all the members of the website. Which means it is free.
In the long range we forecast that the monsoon would stall and maybe loop. Which it did. What that meant is we saw that low form off QLD, head to Fiji and hang there longer than the major forecasters thought. They had it coming back to QLD.
Normally the monsoon is strong in one location around the equator, and that location tends to shift East almost each day and take about 30 to 45 days to make the full trip.
This time, it appears to me that it is going to reverse up. Meaning it is currently strong in the Pacific near Fiji. As shown by this satellite image of current cloud cover, mostly over the Pacific.
But this cloud which is also associated with rain and storm activity, is going to shift back West over the coming weeks. First to around the Coral Sea and QLD Peninsula. Then to the West and top end of the NT. The following is a representation of the typical rainfall expected for each phase 5, 6 and 7 of the monsoon pulse. Meaning it shows where the rain falls most during the monsoon movement around the earth. Only if you follow the pink arrows, they show the reverse movement. From pause 7 back to 5.
And the models for the next 2 weeks show this. Moving West from left image to right image.
With the move to the West, it will pull more from the West and we will see a heavy monsoonal pulse in 2 weeks. And in March we tend to see more intense cyclones than during December to January.
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