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Special report
Monsoon:
Ex Tropical Cyclone 03P (Jasper) should move into the Gulf tomorrow and merge into a larger low pressure system. That system will extend into the Coral Sea. From here we may see the low form a new tropical low and move out into the Coral Sea.
Movement of ex TC Jasper and another low pressure system over 4 days
Storms:
A tropical low (ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper) will bring heavy rain, showers, and storms.
Troughs will cause showers and storms in southeast QLD and northeast NSW. A broad trough will draw heat across the interior and cause showers and storms in WA's east and SA's west.
WEATHER WARNINGS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy Rainfall) for parts of Capricornia and Wide Bay and Burnett.
Fire Weather Warning for Burrup and South Interior.
Strong Wind Warning for Perth Local Waters & Geraldton, Lancelin, Perth, Bunbury Geographe, Leeuwin, and Eucla coasts.
Strong Wind Warning Banks St & Franklin Sound, East of Flinders Is, Storm Bay, SW Lakes & Far NW, CN, Lower E, SE, SW & CW coasts.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Tully River And Major Flood Warning For The Murray River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Barron River.
Severe Weather Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall) for parts of Peninsula, Gulf Country and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders.
Strong Wind Warning for Eden Coast.
Major Flood Warning For The Herbert River.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Daintree River And Flood Warning For The Mossman River.
Strong Wind Warning for South East Gulf of Carpentaria.
Strong Wind Warning for Central, Central Gippsland and East Gippsland coasts. Cancellation for West Coast.
Strong Wind Warning for Sunday for Far West Coast.
Moderate Flood Warning For The Johnstone River Catchment.
Flood Watch For Parts Of The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of Gulf Country.
Minor Flood Warning For The Mulgrave River And Flood Warning For The Russell River.
Fire Weather Warning for Midwest Coast, Midwest Inland, Lesueur, Yarra Yarra, Swan Inland South, and Capes.
Fire Weather Warning for Barkly North.
Fire Weather Warning for Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes, and North Western.
Minor Flood Warning For The Paroo River (Nsw).
Storms 2PM maturing
National
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper moving west over Cape York Peninsula, forecasted to reach Gulf of Carpentaria, then move northwest. Weak east coast ridge. Broad trough over central/southern Queensland this weekend. Upper trough crossing southern Queensland, enhancing showers/thunderstorms. High strengthening in Tasman Sea on Monday, extending ridge over state. New trough moving into central/southern Queensland on Tuesday, persisting for several days.
Synoptic | Temp/Rain | Wind | Sea Surface Temp
State
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper moves west over Cape York Peninsula, then northwest towards Gulf of Carpentaria. Weak ridge on east coast. Broad trough in central and southern Queensland brings showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough enhances rainfall. High strengthens in Tasman Sea, extending ridge. New trough moves into central and southern Queensland, persisting for several days.
ACCESS 3Hour Rainfall
4-day
Sunday: Showers, rain, and storms likely in Cape York Peninsula and North Tropical Coast, with heavy falls possible. Showers and storms possible elsewhere, excluding the southwest. Severe thunderstorms possible in central and southeastern Queensland with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. Clear in the southwest. Winds will be light to moderate, mostly from the northwest to northeast, shifting to southeast and southwesterly in western Queensland and the southern interior. The southeast will experience severe heatwave conditions.
Monday: Showers and thunderstorms in Cape York and North Tropical Coast. Showers and thunderstorms elsewhere, except Central Coast and Central West District. Possible severe thunderstorms in southeast with damaging wind. Partly cloudy in Central Coast and Central West. Heatwave easing in southeast. Above average temperatures south of Hughenden, below average elsewhere.
Tuesday: Expect some showers and thunderstorms across the state, mainly in the eastern districts south of Port Douglas. Showers will be more prevalent in the north, specifically north of Kowanyama. Maximum temperatures will be above average in the south of Hughenden and below average in other areas.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the state, showers only from Cooktown to St. Lawrence. Widespread showers over far north Cape York Peninsula and southern interior. Above average temperatures in eastern districts south of Mackay, below average elsewhere.
North Tropical Coast and Tablelands:
Maximum temperature: 28°C, minimum temperature: low 20s, wind speed: easterly 15-25 km/h, wind direction: east, rainfall: very high chance of rain, other conditions: cloudy with chance of thunderstorm and heavy falls possible.
Herbert and Lower Burdekin:
Max temperature: 25-30, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: very high chance of rain, Cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
Central Coast and Whitsundays:
The forecast for tomorrow is a maximum temperature of around 30 degrees, light winds becoming northeasterly, partly cloudy with medium chance of showers in the north, slight chance elsewhere, and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Peninsula:
Max temperature: 33°C, Min temperature: low to mid 20s°C, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Very high chance of showers with heavy falls possible south of Coen, Other: Cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm.
Gulf Country:
Max temperature: 30 to 39, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Partly cloudy with very high chance of showers in the north and slight chance elsewhere, Chance of thunderstorm, Heavy falls possible in the north.
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders:
Max temperature: 35, Min temperature: 20, Wind speed: 25-35 km/h east to northeasterly, Wind direction: east to northeasterly, Rainfall: Cloudy. Very high chance of rain in the north, medium chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible heavy falls in the north.
Capricornia:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: light becoming northerly 15 to 25 km/h, Wind direction: variabl, Rainfall: partly cloudy with chance of showers, Thunderstorm: possible.
Central Highlands and Coalfields:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, min temperature: low 20s, wind speed: light becoming 15-20 km/h, wind direction: north to northeasterly, rainfall: high chance of showers, partly cloudy with possible thunderstorm.
Central West:
Max temperature: 33 to 39, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 20 to 30 km/h northeasterly, Wind direction: northeasterly, Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, Other: Partly cloudy with chance of thunderstorm.
North West:
Max temperature: 40°C, Min temperature: mid 20s, Wind speed: easterly 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: easterly, Rainfall: slight chance east of Mt Isa, near zero chance elsewhere, Other: Partly cloudy, chance of thunderstorm from late morning.
Channel Country:
Max temperature: 40 degrees, Min temperature: low to mid 20s, Wind speed: 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: south to southeasterly, Rainfall: sunny, Thunderstorm: chance in northeast in afternoon and evening
Maranoa and Warrego:
Max temperature: mid to high 30s, min temperature: low 20s, wind speed: 15 to 20 km/h, wind direction: southeast to southwesterly in the morning, northwest to southwesterly in the middle of the day, southeast to southwesterly in the afternoon, rainfall: Mostly sunny with slight chance of a shower in the northeast, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, thunderstorm chance in the north in the afternoon and evening.
Darling Downs and Granite Belt:
Today's weather will have a max temperature of around 40°C, with a chance of showers in the north, near zero chance of rain elsewhere, a possibility of thunderstorms in the late morning, and winds shifting from northwesterly to northeasterly.
Wide Bay and Burnett:
Max temperature: low to mid 30s, Min temperature: low 20s, Wind speed: light winds becoming 15-20 km/h and then 15-25 km/h, Wind direction: north to northwesterly and then north to northeasterly, Rainfall: medium chance of showers and chance of a severe thunderstorm, Other: Partly cloudy.
Southeast Coast:
Max temperature: 32 to 38; Min temperature: low 20s; Wind speed: light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening; Wind direction: northeasterly; Rainfall: slight chance of a shower, most likely in the afternoon and evening; Other conditions: partly cloudy; Chance of thunderstorm from late morning, possibly severe.
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National maps by Weatherzone (weatherzone.com.au)
State maps by Windy (Windy.com)
Weather forecast supplemented by Bureau of Meteorology (bom.gov.au)
Rainfall daily totals (https://meteologix.com/ )
AccuWeather (https://www.accuweather.com/)
Nine Weather (https://www.9news.com.au/weather)
Wally's Weather provides professionally researched data and information. Andrew aka 'Wally' has over 20 years of experience in meteorology research and data analysis. In 2023 finished top 4 for the AMOS national weather forecasting competition. The content here is provided as educational information aimed at providing the community and businesses with the tools required to determine local-based forecasts. IMPORTANT: The forecasts and information posted should never be used on their own to make business decisions as local influences.
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