Tropical Cyclone Fina - JTWC (20/11 PM)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has issued an updated forecast for Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently sitting north-east of Darwin and slowly drifting southeast.

🔹 Current Situation

Winds: 65 knots (~120 km/h)

Movement: Slow, only about 4 km/h

Structure:

• Patchy thunderstorm core

• Dry air on the south & east sides holding it back

• Still trying to organise an eye

Environment: Warm ocean water and improving upper-level winds mean it still has room to strengthen.

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🔹 What JTWC Thinks Will Happen Next

Over the next 24 hours, steering winds shift and Fina begins turning southwest, heading toward the Tiwi Islands / Van Diemen Gulf region.

Peak strength expected in 48 hours, reaching around 80 knots (~150 km/h) before nearing the coast again.

After interacting with land, it briefly weakens near Darwin, then strengthens again once over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, before finally weakening inland.

JTWC notes high uncertainty in the exact track and timing — the cyclone could shift closer to Darwin or stay a bit more offshore over the Tiwi Islands.

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🔹 How This Forecast Differs From the Previous One

Earlier forecast (yesterday):

Expected Fina to peak around 65 kt, then gradually weaken.

A generally weaker system overall.

New forecast:

Fina is stronger than expected already (65 kt now instead of 55 kt).

Forecast peak is now 80 kt — noticeably stronger than before.

Track is slightly further west, bringing more focus onto the northwest Top End, Tiwi Islands and Van Diemen Gulf.

Overall: Stronger system, stronger peak, and a west-leaning track compared with the older outlook.