Tropical Low 07U

🌦️ Monsoonal update – what it means for the week ahead & Christmas plans

The BOM 7-day outlook shows the monsoon active across northern Australia, but for most people this is more about typical wet-season conditions, rather than widespread severe weather.

Here’s the plain-English breakdown 👇

🔹 Tropical Low 07U – Gulf Country

This system is already near the south-west Gulf coast and is moving inland today.

It’s bringing showers and storms, with locally heavy rain in parts of the Gulf.

The risk of it becoming a cyclone has decreased, and it’s not expected to develop further.

If you’re travelling in the Gulf Country, be mindful of sudden downpours, water over roads and fast-rising creeks.

🔹 Tropical Low 03U – Indian Ocean

This low is over the Indian Ocean and is forecast to move west, passing south of Christmas Island this weekend.

It may strengthen next week and could pass near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands mid-week.

👉 No direct impacts are forecast for the WA mainland or Christmas Island at this stage.

Anyone with travel plans to Cocos should keep checking updates.

🔹 Potential Tropical Low 08U – Kimberley (later next week)

A new low may form near or off the Kimberley coast late next week.

Development chances are low at this stage, but it could increase showers and storm activity across the north Kimberley.

🎄 What does this mean for Christmas?

For most areas: • Humid • Hit-and-miss showers or storms • Localised heavy rain, not a widespread washout

Outdoor plans should be fine for many, just have a Plan B in case a storm pops up — especially in the afternoons and evenings.

Travelling in northern regions?

✔️ Allow extra time

✔️ Check road conditions

✔️ Never drive through floodwater

Overall, this is wet-season behaviour, not a major disruption signal — but we’ll keep watching how things evolve and update as needed.

☁️ Tropical Low 07U – upper-level signs now showing

You may have noticed the high, streaky cloud over parts of the North QLD coast today — that’s not random cloud. The satellite imagery shows upper-level outflow increasing, which is an early sign that Tropical Low 07U is becoming better organised aloft.

At the moment, most of the convergence is higher in the atmosphere, which is why we’re seeing cloud and moisture spreading without widespread heavy rain yet along the NQ coast.

As 07U continues to move south, that zone of convergence is expected to shift south as well, allowing showers and storms to become more active further south over time rather than sitting over one spot.

Also worth noting — just as mentioned yesterday — there is a secondary convergence zone setting up further south, which often becomes important once the primary system weakens inland. That secondary zone can still deliver useful rain, even if it’s not as intense. Still this may impact travel around Christmas.

Bottom line:

This is the atmosphere slowly organising itself. No sudden change today, but it helps explain the cloud patterns we’re seeing and why rainfall focus is likely to shift south rather than stay locked over the north.