Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina - Accumulated Rain Forecast (22/11 PM)

Both of these maps are showing rainfall totals, not just what’s fallen so far but what’s likely as Fina moves away.

• ACCESS-C (first image)

  • Puts a huge bullseye of rain south and south-east of the centre, with spots over 350–380 mm.

  • You can see the hook of heavier rain wrapping in behind the cyclone, across Darwin, the rural area and down towards Batchelor.

  • The band behind the centre is clearly heavier than the rain right under the core as it travels through.

• ECMWF (second image)

  • Is smoother and a bit lower, but still has 200–250 mm+ around Darwin and inland, again on the south and south-west side of the track.

  • Same story: the wrap-around rain shield behind Fina is where the bigger totals sit, not right on the eye.

So both ACCESS-C and ECMWF agree that:

• The heaviest falls are likely after the centre has passed, in the bands feeding in from the west and south-west,

• Rain travelling with the cyclone gives decent totals, but the rear rain band looks to almost double that in places, especially where it keeps swinging over the same area.

GFS wasn’t available at the time, but the two models we do have are both telling the same message:even once Fina moves off to the west, don’t drop your guard on the rain – those wrap-around bands could still deliver very heavy falls and local flooding around Darwin, the rural area and inland.