TC Fina

First up – this is still a tropical low, not an official cyclone yet in the Aussie system. BOM only calls it a Category 1 tropical cyclone once the 10-minute average winds near the centre reach about 63–88 km/h. Current data has it getting up around that lower end over the Timor Sea, but BOM are still treating it as a tropical low for now.

🌀 What the map shows

• The solid line is the most likely track of the centre.

• The shaded cone is the “wobble zone” – the centre can shift anywhere inside that grey area.

• Wind and rain can spread well outside the cone, so don’t treat the edges as a safety line.

• Boaties should always check the official Coastal Waters and High Seas warnings from BOM for wind and wave details.

📍 Current situation (early Wednesday ACST)

• The low is over the Timor Sea, a few hundred kilometres north of Darwin, drifting slowly east-north-east.

• BOM’s forecast has it strengthening to Category 2 while it stays over water, then turning south then south-west later Thursday, heading back towards the NT coast for a possible impact sometime Friday into Saturday.

• No NT communities are expected to see direct impacts in the next 48 hours, but that may change as it comes back towards the coast.

📊 Why you’ll see two sets of maps from me

• I’ll be showing BOM maps because BOM is our official warning agency – their advice is what we all follow.

• I’ll also show JTWC maps. JTWC (the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is a US Navy and Air Force centre in Hawaii that tracks tropical systems across the Indian and Pacific Oceans for ships and defence. Over the years their guidance has often been very accurate for our region, so it’s a useful extra view alongside BOM.

👮‍♂️ What to doKeep an eye on official BOM warnings and follow any advice from NT Emergency Services (NTES). I’ll keep updating the page as the track and strength become clearer.