TC Fina - JTWC

From the JTWC perspective I am writing the following:

Fina is still sitting over the Timor Sea, now about 315 km north-north-east of Darwin, moving slowly east. Winds near the centre are around 85 km/h with higher gusts, and seas are up around 5 metres out in the deeper water.

Conditions over the warm ocean are still pretty friendly for it, so it’s likely to strengthen further over the next day or so, possibly getting up towards Category 2 strength while it stays over water. Later in the week, the steering winds are expected to change, which should make Fina slow down, then hook south and south-west, bringing it back towards the northern NT and WA coastline. As it brushes the coast, stronger winds higher up and drier air should start to knock it back, with a weakening trend as it interacts with land. There’s a chance it could pulse again briefly if it spends time back over the Timor Sea early next week, but that’s getting into the fuzzier end of the outlook.

The computer models agree on the general idea (east for now, then a turn back towards the coast), but there’s still a few hundred kilometres’ wriggle room on exactly where and when it turns, especially later in the week. That’s normal at this range.

As always, I’ll be using BOM as the official advice for warnings and alerts, and I’ll also show some of the JTWC (US Joint Typhoon Warning Center) guidance because it’s been very handy over the years in our part of the world.

No need to be alarmed, but if you’re in the Top End or the far north of WA, it’s a good one to keep an eye on across the week and stay tuned to official BOM updates and local emergency advice.