🌧🌀 Watching the Timor Sea – Invest 97S (02U)

A tropical “invest” (area of interest) labelled 97S is sitting over the warm waters northwest of the NT and slowly getting its act together.

Here’s the simple version of what the latest guidance is saying:

• 🗺 Where is it?About 320 km west-northwest of Darwin, over the Timor Sea.

• 💨 How strong is it now?It’s still a tropical low, not a cyclone. Winds near the centre are around 45–50 km/h with pressure near 1006 hPa.

• 🌡 Why are we watching it?The air above it is reasonably “storm-friendly” – warm seas (around 30–31 °C), not too much wind shear and good ventilation higher up. That helps storms keep flaring over the low.

• 🔺 Chance of cyclone development:The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded the chance of this low becoming a tropical cyclone to MEDIUM in the next 24 hours. That means it has a decent shot at further development, but it’s not a lock.

• 🧭 What do the model tracks show?The squiggly red and yellow lines on the track map are different computer models.Most of them:

  • Keep the low over the Timor Sea for the next couple of days, then

  • Drift it slowly towards the NT coast and the Tiwi/Top End region, possibly looping around or stalling near the coast later in the week.There’s still big spread and uncertainty in exactly where and when it comes ashore or how strong it gets.

• 🌧 What it could mean for the NT/Top End:

  • Increasing showers, storms and squally rain bands across parts of the Top End as the week goes on.

  • Rougher seas and freshening winds near the low.

  • If it does reach cyclone strength, that would most likely be later this week and somewhere in the broader NT coastal waters – details still very fuzzy.

For now there is no immediate cause for alarm, but it’s a good system to keep an eye on if you’re in the Top End, Tiwi Islands or NT coastal communities.

📌 Important:This is early guidance only – track and intensity can and will change. Use this as a heads-up, not a forecast for your exact town. Always check the Bureau of Meteorology and official NT warnings for the latest advice.